This is horribly off-topic and most probably pointless, but here goes...
dee. wrote:
What is probably going to happen is that tablets and smartphones will address that part of the market which only needs a computing device for trivial stuff, like web and such, while desktop/laptop market will become more focused on work, gaming and different niche applications (using the term broadly, as some of those "niches" are quite large indeed). Also, a portion of the market of tablets has been people who are unfamiliar with computers, less technically oriented people, like elderly people and such - and that market is just going to shrink in the future, 20 years from now there likely won't be a person left alive who doesn't know how to use a computer. So that is also likely to swing the balance back somewhat.
zeke wrote:
You've got to be joking. The web is trivial, but gaming is not? The market for tablets and smartphones is the elderly? 20 years from now laptops and desktop computers will be more popular?
dee. wrote:
It's clear from the context that I'm not saying the entire web is trivial. The things most tablet-using people use the web for are (facebook and such). I've also never claimed that the elderly are the entire market for tablets. It's right there in what you quoted: see the word "portion" there? Do you know what "portion" means? I also never claimed that laptops and desktops will be more popular than they are now 20 years from now. I said that the computer-illiterate market is going to shrink in the future, which will reduce the advantage of tablets against desktops/laptops.
You may have meant something different from what you said, but what you said is "Tablets <are> for people who don't really need to do any actual work on their computer, who just use them to browse the web and play angrybirds. " and "tablets and smartphones will address that part of the market which only needs a computing device for trivial stuff, like web and such". These are pretty blanket statements about the people who use tablets/smartphones and about the "web" and "browsing the web" being "trivial" and not related to "actual work". I don't see any context in the original post that would imply differently, and I certainly don't see any qualifiers like "most".
I was't really sure about your comment refering to elderly people and tablets. You seemed to be making a connection between elderly people owning tablets and the market for tablets shrinking in the future (I guess by dying off?) so I assumed you were refering to those elderly people (or lack of them thru death) driving the market. I'll note that elderly people also use desktops (for example my 87 year old mother has a desktop running ubuntu and I don't know what she will do if ubuntu goes away - moderators please take note of this highly on-topic statement), and those people will be dying off as well. I also was and am not clear about the role of the computer illiterates. You seem to be saying that people who are computer literate do not use tablets, so once they learn about all the neat things they can do with desktop computers they will throw away those silly tablets, also contributing to the market for tablets shrinking?
You stated that "the tablet craze is probably going to plateau" (or shrink because of all the elderly tablet users dying off?) and 20 years from now that will "swing the balance <between tablets and laptops/desktops> back". To me this implies that 20 years from now desktops/laptops will grow in popularity relative to tablets.
zeke wrote: I see people all around me - very technically-oriented people - ditching laptops for tablets to do - work. They are fantastic devices for mobile communications and pulling information from sources like that trivial web thing, and are much more convenient to travel with compared to a laptop. My wife travels a lot for work and she wouldn't be caught dead w/o her smartphone. A full keyboard is more efficient at producing large amounts of text, but that's about it, and there is way more to "work" than that. I've also seen people who can type faster on a virtual keyboard than many people can on a real one. Not to mention that almost anything one can do w/ a mouse is easier and more natural w/ a touch screen.
dee. wrote:
Oh BS. Try producing anything beyond a couple of sentences with an on-screen keyboard. Those people who are super-fast on a virtual keyboard - put them together with people who are relatively fast on regular keyboards and ask both to write a one page essay. Look who gets it done first. I think you can guess the outcome if you have any honesty.
The problem here seems to be your extremely narrow definition of "actual work". As I said, not all work involves the creation of large amounts of text. Reading and writing communications, reading documents, searching for information, are important parts of the "actual work" many people do, all of which can be and is done quite well on a tablet in many cases.
dee. wrote:
As for touch being "more natural than a mouse"... what world do you live in? Try doing any actual work (something more than browsing the web) with a touch device. Try clicking any small controls or buttons accurately. With touch devices you have to constantly zoom in just to hit the right link in the middle of a text. Then there's the problem with ergonomy: with a touch screen, you have to either position the screen almost horizontally, or your arms will kill you if you use it for more than 5 minutes. And that means you have to be in a very specific position to work with it, which is inconvenient. Additionally, a touch screen requires way longer arm motions than a mouse, which only becomes worse the larger the screen is. That's why they're suitable for small mobile devices, but with anything larger, a mouse (or another pointing device, like a trackball) is way more ergonomic. Touch is a nice feature for trivial things but when it comes to doing actual work, it's no match for the accuracy and ergonomy of a mouse or trackball.
I can't believe you're trying to argue that pointing at an object in front of you by maneuvering a device off to your side on a desktop is more natural than well, pointing at it. Using a mouse is obviously a learned skill - try using a mouse w/ your opposite hand. Personally I can do it but it takes some thought, and gets frustrating after awhile. On the other hand I can point to an object on a screen w/ my opposite hand w/ no hesitation. Software has been developed and optimized for a keyboard/mouse model for decades. Touch screens have only come into wide use in the last couple of years, and the technology and software is still evolving. Yes, there are advantages to using a mouse with the current state of technology.
dee. wrote:
Tablets are nice, there's a place for them surely, but to think that they're going to replace all the computers and people will do EVERYTHING with them, is plain idiocy. 90% of the things I do with my computer would be horribly uncomfortable using a tablet or touch screen.
Wow, talk about reductionist! I never said anything like the above statements at all. You made blanket statements that tablets and smartphones are not used for "actual work", and that they are for "people who are unfamiliar with computers", and I tried to point out that there are many useful things that can be and are done with tablets, by people who are "familiar with" computers. Current tablets certainly have limitations and one can't do EVERYTIHNG with them. As I said, I believe that "whatever devices are in use <20 years from now> won't closely resemble much of what is out there today.". Touch-screen technology however, is a game-changer, paradigm shifter, whatever you want to call it, and as the technology evolves, it (and its successors) will vastly improve and grow in popularity and utility into the future.
zeke wrote: I can't predict the future 20 years from now any better than anyone else, but I can virtually guarantee that whatever devices are in use at that time won't closely resemble much of what is out there today. As a wild guess I would say if 20 years from now someone has need of a keyboard-like interface to a "computer" (how quaint), they will probably use a device that projects a virtual keyboard somewhere and reads their finger motions - but that's probably nowhere near imaginative enough to predict what will really be out there.
dee. wrote:
Those things you speak of already exist, and they haven't replaced actual keyboards.
Please let me know where I can buy one of these magical devices.
dee. wrote:Look at old star trek episodes, everything on the enterprise is voice-controlled, because they figured we'd be doing everything by voice in the future. Well, in reality, it turned out that voice control isn't really all that great, and doing things manually is actually much more convenient and faster.
The voice input technology I'm familiar with is pretty horrible. It is however improving all the time. I believe that most people can talk more quickly and accurately than they can type. Of course you can't use it in all situations. I'll also point out that another prominent futuristic technology in those star-trek episodes was touchscreens.