Linux Mint could take the world by storm

[swiftlinuxcreator]

As we know, Linux Mint has taken #1 spot from Ubuntu on DistroWatch at the 6-month level and is closing in on Ubuntu at the 12-month level. I think Linux Mint has the potential to really take the world by storm over the coming years for these reasons:
1. Ubuntu's new Unity interface has been driving away users, and many of them have been defecting to Linux Mint. The next LTS release will be Ubuntu's big test. If Ubuntu can perfect the controversial new Unity interface and quell the controversy, it can gain users. But if the new LTS release continues to alienate users, then the Ubuntu Era is over. Users of the current LTS face termination of support in 2013. Given that the type of people who use an LTS version are more resistant to change than the people who use the regular versions, the deck seems stacked against Ubuntu. Canonical REALLY needs to make a miracle. I see only an outside chance that Canonical can pull it off. Linux Mint is best positioned to attract disgruntled Ubuntu users. Since Mint has a Ubuntu or Debian base, it's the most obvious Ubuntu alternative. The smooth and user-friendly operation will continue winning over Ubuntu users. Linux Mint represents everything people liked about the old Ubuntu. Ubuntu's controversy is THE answer to the complaints that Linux has too many distros. Ubuntu won't leave a void, because Mint, Fedora, and other distros are eagerly filling it.
2. Windows 8 will be introduced in 2012. From what I've read, Windows 8 will look and feel very different from Windows 7 and Vista. It will be an even bigger shock for Windows XP users. Like the new Ubuntu, Windows 8 is supposed to work on desktops and mobile devices. I can't help but think that Ubuntu's Unity controversy is a sneak preview of Windows 8. Given that Windows users are more resistant to change than Ubuntu users and given Microsoft's lousy record on quality (Vista, ME), I think Windows 8 will be a flop, possibly even worse than Vista. I think Microsoft today is in a similar position as General Motors in the late 1970s. Vista was the new Chevy Vega. If Windows 8 turns out to be the new Chevy Citation, then Microsoft is in big trouble and will bleed market share like crazy. If Microsoft loses substantial market share, it will do so much more quickly than GM ever did. GM didn't depend on the everybody-else-uses-it network effect that Microsoft does.
3. Windows XP support will end in April 2014. So many people are still using XP because Vista was such a big flop. They will have to switch to something else. Ubuntu is already considerably heavier than XP, so that eliminates it as an option for the older XP computers. I'm sure that Fedora and other leading distros will be heavier than XP by 2014. As I'm finding, LMDE offers the user-friendliness, capabilities, and refinement of the traditional Ubuntu-based editions without the Ubuntu overhead. LMDE with GNOME feels faster with only 512 MB of RAM than the new Ubuntu feels with 2 GB of RAM. Some people will complain that LMDE doesn't fit onto a CD, but that's a smaller complaint than excessive RAM requirements, because USB drives are cheaper than extra RAM.
4. Linux Mint has a great team. I admire the fact that Clem and the Mint team has rolled out the Debian Edition and quietly started work on it a few years ago, long before the current Unity controversy. My guess is that Clem and the Mint team preferred to keep the Ubuntu base but decided to hedge its bets by working on a Debian base. This makes sense given that Debian dates back to the early days of Linux and has a conservative play-it-safe attitude. I also admire Mint's unique ability to make every edition look and feel so similar that you can easily forget which one you're using (Ubuntu vs. Debian base, GNOME vs. Xfce vs. LXDE). My guess is that Clem and the Mint team prefer GNOME but decided to hedge its bets by offering alternatives. If GNOME 3 had proven to be too difficult to work with, Clem and the Mint team would turn to another DE as the main one.

[KBD47]

My guess is that Windows will remain secure as its XP users migrate to Win7, but I agree that Win8 will likely not be embraced too quickly.
Linux Mint Debian has great promise, but user friendliness just isn't there yet. When it gets as easy to install and use as Ubuntu, it will be really strong. Tried twice this week to install LMDE Xfce without any luck. Tried installing it in virtualbox and failed, yet installed Ubuntu 10.04 in VB right afterward with no difficulty. Then tried to install LMDE Xfce to a usb stick, failed again, but no problem installing Xubuntu 11.10 to the same stick. LMDE needs to become easier to install if it ever hopes to get adopted by general users.
The other Buntus (Xubuntu, Lubuntu, Kubuntu) will likely get much more popular now as they are an easy migration for former Ubuntu users, but Linux Mint is likely to get the lion's share of disgruntled Unity people, and new users will also likely find their way to Mint and get recommendations to use Mint rather than Ubuntu/Unity. I wouldn't wish Ubuntu/Unity on my worst enemy, and can you even imagine 5 years with LTS Unity? That's a nightmare. I do not believe Shuttleworth will admit failure and back away from Unity, just like with the Titanic, he probably thinks God himself can't sink her.
KBD47

[tdockery97]

Both well written posts, and I believe you have done well in calling it exactly the way it is. I've also felt that both MS and Ubuntu have shot themselves in the foot this time around.

[Anakinholland]

Good read, although it could do with a bit more markup to make it easier on the eyes

[xtremo]

Good stuff here!
As a longterm Ubuntu user who has jumped ship due to Unity, I'd make one point.
It's not just Unity that's getting people's back up....it's the attitude I'm afraid. Recent interviews with Mark Shuttleworth have seen him basically come out and say "take it or leave it.....we're doing it anyway".
So it's a case of be damned what the core users actually want.....you'll use what we tell you. And that hasn't gone down well.
Interestingly enough it seems to be a lot of the longterm users who are moving on rather than short term users or distro hoppers....so that's not a good sign.
Yes....there are Buntu alternatives....I'm using Lubuntu on the netbook and it's very good indeed. But I think the negative publicity and autocratic direction surrounding Ubuntu now could well see people walk away from it entirely in protest.
You see, it isn't just Unity.....it's the worrying direction Canonical is taking generally that people are concerned about.
From what I can see here.....things are the complete opposite and that's a real breath of fresh air.

[Maik]

2. Windows 8 will be introduced in 2012. From what I've read, Windows 8 will look and feel very different from Windows 7 and Vista. It will be an even bigger shock for Windows XP users.

And Windows 9 in November, 2014, according to reports. Maybe Microsoft are anticipating Windows 8 won't be popular?

3. Windows XP support will end in April 2014. So many people are still using XP because Vista was such a big flop. They will have to switch to something else.

Or because XP still does what they want and they're familiar with it. When XP support ends they could buy Windows 8, then be exhorted to buy Windows 9, or maybe they'll just give up on M$ and move to Linux?

[xtremo]

THIS is probably the best article I've ever read about the current state of desktop environments.

http://www.zdnet.com/blog/virtualization/i-hate-unity-i-hate-gnome-i-hate-windows-8-the-ultimate-desktop-search-continues/4089

Who’s designing this stuff? Monkeys? Aliens? Vampires?

How can you take something that works and then make it not work?

Don’t waste everyone’s time on something that looks like it should be teaching babies to speak and spell.

[linuxviolin]

THIS is probably the best article I've ever read about the current state of desktop environments.

http://www.zdnet.com/blog/virtualization/i-hate-unity-i-hate-gnome-i-hate-windows-8-the-ultimate-desktop-search-continues/4089

I have already read this. I agree on 2.

[MALsPa]

For a somewhat different point of view, check this out -- from "wizix," found in post #78 in this week's DistroWatch comments section:

Bold moves.

my main two desktops are fedora and mint, but in my opinion what ubuntu is doing is very beneficial to desktop advancement, so what if their new environment isn't very catchy or there is a general distaste for it by the "old" users, if it is good it will stay and if its not it will probably be changed to something better as fast as it was first introduced. the fact that Canonical has good financial resources and large user base means that new and good ideas that might otherwise fail due to lack of resources have a chance to be widely tested and adopted. if I was to place a bet on which distro will set the new standard in linux user interface I would think that ubuntu would do it. although at present I personally don't like unity

[craig10x]

That guy who wrote the zdnet article is quite a "whiner" i would say...unless he has his classic ubuntu style desktop then everything else is crap...
not that i am not glad mint is going in the direction it is...especially in regard to gnome 3 with minty type extensions (personally i think the gnome 2 mate project is a waste of time and won't survive)...still, i have been using unity for a while on ubuntu 11.10 and though i agree it definitely could use more configurability (which hopefully it eventually will have...it is still pretty young yet) it's not THAT hard to work with...

What gave me the biggest laugh is when he said he can't find his applications...duh...you type part of the name into the dash and it pops up (same as on our beloved classic mint menu for pete's sake...lol) and if you "forget" the name of the app...just put in the type of app and it will pop up...

For example, i use lottanzb (for downloading nzb)...now if i "forgot" the name (just had too much to drink or whatever....lol) then if i type nzb..it will pop up on the icons...or say, type photos and SHOTWELL will pop up...type messenger? (whatever messengers are installed..empathy, pidgin, etc....) that is real hard isn't it?

And the side docky can contain all the "favorites" you frequently use (just like desktop shortcuts did on the traditional desktop)...

I think they should allow you to place the docky wherever you like (i'd like mine on the bottom better myself)...and make those app icons smaller and the dash smaller in size too....but otherwise..it's not so bad to work with...

Again, i'm glad mint will be doing what it's doing but i just had to post this because i found that article so amusing

[odo5435]

unless he has his classic ubuntu style desktop then everything else is crap...

I wish I'd had a quick enough brain to say that. One thing that irks me about this whole Unity/GNOME3 argument is how determined people are to resist change without at least giving a modicum of credit to innovators. Fortunately, since that mindset rarely prevails, we no longer have to walk in front of trains/horseless carriages carrying a red flag. I hate to bring the age argument up (yet again) but I can recall the time when the bank I used to work for bought it's first digital calculator. We were allowed to use it on the provision that TWO people signed a declaration to the effect that its calculations had been verified with 'normal' (i.e. handwritten) mathematics. I kid you not!

My point is that change is inevitable.

Unless they sell for $0.50 at the local flea market (a possibility that excites me) I'll probably never own a tablet. I like my desktop. I've spent a lot of money and time getting used to this old girl (which I'm embarrassed to give the specs for) and I don't really relish the idea that she'll be history one day. I've gone from Series/1 to 286, 386, 486, Pentium etc. and dealt with SCO Unix, DOS, Windows 3.1 95 98 XP and 7 and now Linux. However, I can appreciate that there are kids out there who will never know that their particular futuristic handheld window to the world went through all this prior development.

I iterate. Change is inevitable; and companies like Canonical and developers like M. LeFebvre have to accept that fact or suffer the same fate as the Stanley Steamer.

So, to all you whingers and whiners and complainers, get real. No, get modern or "get with it" as we said in my day. There are far more changes coming your way than how your desktop looks.

I reiterate. Change is inevitable.

[xtremo]

Change and advancement is part and parcel of technology. Hell...I go back to amigaDOS and have used just about everything from that to W7 and numerous distros.

But change and advancement implies improvement. ME was not an improvement to SE, Vista was not an improvement to XP.....and looking back there's been numerous cockups along the way.

And I'm afraid that Unity....and anything that looks like it was designed for a tablet device like W8, is not an improvement by any stretch of the imagination. They are regressions, and I'm sure that history will show that Unity (and the autocratic manner of it's deployment) will be the precursor to Canonical's downward spiral.

It gives me no pleasure to say that, having used Ubuntu since Hardy, but the goalposts got moved, the attitude changed......so it was time for me and many others to move on.

Give me advancement and change....I'll embrace it. Just don't give me some stupid buggy POS that makes even the simplest thing complicated....and then tell me it's for my own good. Because it's not.....and thousands of us longterm Ubuntards can't all be wrong.....while Mark Shuttleworth is completely right.
Like I said....the numbers don't add up.....and you can see it happening right in front of you on Distrowatch.

[swiftlinuxcreator]

My problem with Unity is that I haven't been able to get it to work in VirtualBox or on my laptop. Thus, I've only seen the new Ubuntu with GNOME. What's most noticeable about the new Ubuntu is its bloat - noticably heavier than the old Ubuntu LTS and its Linux Mint 9 derivative. LMDE with GNOME feels faster with only 512 MB of RAM than the new Xubuntu, the new Ubuntu, or its Mint derivatives feel with 2 GB of RAM.

I'm puzzled by the need to have the same OS work both on desktops and mobile devices. What's wrong with having one OS for the desktop and one for mobile devices? I'm sure that it's possible to make a good mobile OS that's derived from the desktop OS.

Although I largely agree with the Ubuntu critics, I can't fault Canonical for trying something new. If they get Unity to work as well for users as the old GNOME did, we'll see other distros offering it. The new Ubuntu doesn't seem to be a flop among mobile users, as even people who don't like it on the desktop seem to like it mobile. That said, Unity seems to be driving away desktop users, so it's no surprise that other distros are distancing themselves from it.

This is not your father's Ubuntu. Time will tell if it's the new Oldsmobile or if it finds a new base of users.

[swiftlinuxcreator]

I think there's an unprecedented opportunity today for the lightweight desktop environments and window managers. Linux Mint implements LXDE very well. I think the Puppy Linux menu and desktop sets the standard - I like it even better than the Mint menu and desktop. The Puppy Linux user interface is so good that it took me a long time to find out what it used (ROX pinboard and JWM). The full version of antiX Linux uses ROX pinboard and IceWM, which also offers the Windows 95/98/XP feel.

[KBD47]

THIS is probably the best article I've ever read about the current state of desktop environments.

http://www.zdnet.com/blog/virtualization/i-hate-unity-i-hate-gnome-i-hate-windows-8-the-ultimate-desktop-search-continues/4089

Who’s designing this stuff? Monkeys? Aliens? Vampires?

How can you take something that works and then make it not work?

Don’t waste everyone’s time on something that looks like it should be teaching babies to speak and spell.

Comparing Unity to a hanging chad is just too funny
Unity drove me to Xfce and LXDE. Of course I can't wait to try the new MGSE.

[linuxviolin]

the fact that Canonical has good financial resources and large user base means that new and good ideas (...) have a chance to be widely tested and adopted.

And bad ideas too, specially the bad...

Change is inevitable

And what? Yes, people often like to change and what? Often, even if not always of course, the change is just stupid, change for change or/and for something more "modern" they believe, etc...

[lexon]

Mint is ok but will never, ever come close to taking the world by storm. Could be a sci fy book though.
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