Hurricane Irma...

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Portreve
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Hurricane Irma...

Postby Portreve » Thu Sep 07, 2017 5:40 pm

I don't know how many of you fellow LinuxMinters live in the southeastern U.S., much less in Florida, but since this seems like it's going to be another huge event, though (hopefully) not as catastrophic as Harvey was to S.E. Texas, it seems relevant to the lives of many of us.

I live in S.W. Florida, and (thus far) we haven't received any mandatory evacuation instructions, though Marco Island was under a voluntary evacuation notice. And, honestly, if you live on any of the many barrier islands on either coast of Florida, it seems particularly wise and prudent to evacuate, if you haven't already.

I lived through Charley in 2004, which passed within about 40 or so miles (64 km) of my home at the time. One of the strange side effects of the storm coming in as it did is that all, and I mean all street signs, light poles, trees, etc., were either bent over, or broken off, in a due-north direction. So, one day, everything is normal; the next (and for months afterward) one only needed to look for a bent or broken sign to tell which way was north.

Getting back to Irma, the latest European weather model tracks Irma into the Gulf of Mexico, and roughly over Key West. While our meterological outlets are all weighting the American (GFS) system's tracks more because the European one is an outlier at this point, they do recognize it could also be right. If that were to be the way it goes, then everyone on the west coast would almost certainly need to evacuate.

I know it's real tempting to say, "Oh, I hope it hits X instead of me," but that's not the kind of attitude we need. There's already enough awful stuff going on in this country right now, be it weather related, political, or anything else, and wishing someone else to take the bullet for oneself is something I could never conscience, and hope nobody else will do, either.
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JeremyB
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Re: Hurricane Irma...

Postby JeremyB » Thu Sep 07, 2017 7:09 pm

I would say board things up and leave now, don't wait for the Gov't to say evacuate..get a head start on the rest

mr_raider
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Re: Hurricane Irma...

Postby mr_raider » Thu Sep 07, 2017 8:28 pm

I lived in Miami when Wilma hit. Not pretty. Get out now.
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Jim Hauser
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Re: Hurricane Irma...

Postby Jim Hauser » Fri Sep 08, 2017 1:59 am

From what I can see this storm could hit us in South Mississippi although the "experts" say that it is not likely. The entire state of Florida is at risk right now according to current predictions.

I have been through Frederick, Elana, Georges and Katrina. The worst part was not the storm itself but life in the months afterward.

The number one rule is to keep yourself alive! This storm has already set some records and will probably set some more. It could make Harvey look like a cakewalk!

Irma will probably make the history books. Move now!

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Pierre
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Re: Hurricane Irma...

Postby Pierre » Fri Sep 08, 2017 4:28 am

so - - will Hurricane Irma be as bad as Hurricane Sandy was in 2012?

with so many of these Hurricane, this season,
- which one is the worst ?.
still wouldn't want to be there, though.

Move Out - - while you still can - - as advised.
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Re: Hurricane Irma...

Postby Tomgin5 » Fri Sep 08, 2017 10:42 pm

Strictly a personnal gut feeling and 3 cousins worth. 2 of my cousins left Ft Meyers on their boat (yacht) they decided that It was going to skirt the west coast of Florida the length of Florida and hit landfall west of Jacksonville as a CAT4+ and still be a CAT 2 by Atlanta. They have lived in Ft Meyers for over 40 years. The other cousin was on St Martin. The 2 cousins are planning on proceeding at max cruising speed of their 4 (ea) 671-12's can get them to Brazil.
In other words, If you do not have an air/watertight bunker that can handle a 20 foot surge, start swimming. The roads are completely blocked.

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Portreve
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Re: Hurricane Irma...

Postby Portreve » Sat Sep 09, 2017 8:44 pm

Well, as of Saturday evening, all roads are open. Generally, bridges are closed to all traffic when sustained wind speeds exceed 35-40 mph.

I've evacuated and am hopeful the storm surge and wind well be toward the lower end of projections.

We will see...
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Jim Hauser
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Re: Hurricane Irma...

Postby Jim Hauser » Sat Sep 09, 2017 11:51 pm

We had a cold front come through south Mississippi (from west to east) yesterday. It might force Irma back towards the east tomorrow.

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killer de bug
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Re: Hurricane Irma...

Postby killer de bug » Sun Sep 10, 2017 4:16 am

Portreve wrote:Getting back to Irma, the latest European weather model tracks Irma into the Gulf of Mexico, and roughly over Key West. While our meterological outlets are all weighting the American (GFS) system's tracks more because the European one is an outlier at this point, they do recognize it could also be right. If that were to be the way it goes, then everyone on the west coast would almost certainly need to evacuate.

European models were right it seems. West part of Florida will be hit. :(
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Re: Hurricane Irma...

Postby kc1di » Sun Sep 10, 2017 5:16 am

our thoughts and prayers will be with those for one reason or another could not leave.
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Re: Hurricane Irma...

Postby Benedetto » Mon Sep 11, 2017 6:07 am

I know prayers and thoughts have been made in most churches here in Europe in recent days and particularly over the week-end.
Y'all keep safe now.
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Portreve
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Re: Hurricane Irma...

Postby Portreve » Mon Sep 11, 2017 1:38 pm

As I'm sure you are all well aware by this point, the most southern reaches of Florida sustained anywhere from significant to critical damage. As I understand it, the Miami area and the Keys were heavily impacted, as was the Marco Island area on the west coast. Naples was also impacted, though I'm not sure how bad it got down there just yet.

Fortunately — very fortunately — the damage done dropped off precipitously as you go further north, with the greater Fort Myers area, and Cape Coral, and points north of them, having come through largely unscathed. Funny enough, my supervisor, who lives in Tampa, has been more impacted than I have. The point here is you just never know what will happen until it does happen.

In the meantime, my heart goes out to all those across the Caribbean who sustained critical and devastating losses, especially in the form of human lives, but also in terms of property and economy.

Believe me when I say that I'm well aware of just how lucky I and many in my area are to have gotten away with practically no damage whatsoever. This could have wiped out all of southeastern or southwestern Florida.
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Re: Hurricane Irma...

Postby dcrowder » Tue Sep 12, 2017 11:42 pm

My thoughts and prayers to everyone affected.
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Re: Hurricane Irma...

Postby jimallyn » Wed Sep 13, 2017 3:45 am

Just came across this fact this evening:

According to the Center for International Policy, a person is 15 times as likely to be killed by a hurricane in the United States as in Cuba.
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Re: Hurricane Irma...

Postby dcrowder » Wed Sep 13, 2017 10:08 am

@jimallyn - Interesting. I am curious is that per capita? If not, may just be because US population is much larger than Cuba's.
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Fred Barclay
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Re: Hurricane Irma...

Postby Fred Barclay » Wed Sep 13, 2017 10:51 am

Portreve and the others - I'm glad you made it out okay! :mrgreen: I'll continue praying for and thinking of you guys in Florida and the Caribbean.

jimallyn wrote:According to the Center for International Policy, a person is 15 times as likely to be killed by a hurricane in the United States as in Cuba.

Weird. I was wondering about the per capita thing too. I've looked it up and I can't find the original source, just a lot of articles quoting this figure (including an interview with someone from the Center for International Policy, where the spokesperson neither denies nor confirms this figure). :?
Even if it is correct, I'd still rather take my hurricane survival chances elsewhere.
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jimallyn
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Re: Hurricane Irma...

Postby jimallyn » Wed Sep 13, 2017 6:54 pm

dcrowder wrote:I am curious is that per capita?

I would assume so, otherwise it would be a rather useless number, wouldn’t it?
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Re: Hurricane Irma...

Postby phd21 » Thu Sep 14, 2017 1:15 pm

Hi "Portreve" and Everyone Else,

We were fortunate around here in Sarasota, FL that the damage from hurricane Irma was not more severe, but there is a lot of cleanup to be done.

Thank you everyone for the well wishes and concern for everyone affected by this, very nice and very thoughtful.

Here a couple of images from around here of some damage caused by "Irma". You can click the image to view larger images, or right click and open in a new browser tab, and then you can click an image again to enlarge or shrink an image. Keep in mind that these trees have already had some large branches removed before I took these pictures.

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Here is a picture of a tree that was affected by the hurricanes from 12 years ago, note the tree's shape and position was permanently changed from the high winds.

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Re: Hurricane Irma...

Postby BG405 » Thu Sep 14, 2017 2:41 pm

I've been following this on the news and all I can say is that my thoughts go out to those affected, especially those who can not get out for whatever reason. We're fortunate in the UK that severe storms are quite rare, the only bad one I remember was in 1987 and this mainly affected the South East, Channel Islands and northern France.

I remember seeing the destruction in London a few weeks later, Hyde Park was a complete mess with huge trees ripped out of the ground and significant structural damage. Must be terrifying for people living in areas more prone to such storms.

We do get the occasional rogue twister too, usually in the Birmingham area, though most do little or no damage. Last bad one was several years ago IIRC and took the roofs off a load of houses.
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killer de bug
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Re: Hurricane Irma...

Postby killer de bug » Thu Sep 14, 2017 4:27 pm

BG405 wrote: We're fortunate in the UK that severe storms are quite rare, the only bad one I remember was in 1987 and this mainly affected the South East, Channel Islands and northern France.

There was one on the 26-28 December 1999. But I don't remember if it impacted England.
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