A riddle

[slipstick]

OK, let's change the game a little bit. Let's say there are 1,000,000 doors, with 999,999 goats and only 1 car. After you choose, the host opens all the doors except the one you chose and the one with the car. Do you still think your odds of winning the car are 50% by sticking with your original choice?

[greerd]

OK, let's change the game a little bit. Let's say there are 1,000,000 doors, with 999,999 goats and only 1 car. After you choose, the host opens all the doors except the one you chose and the one with the car. Do you still think your odds of winning the car are 50% by sticking with your original choice?

Good point, although I suspect you mean the one with the 999,999/1,000,000 chance of a car. I think I'd switch!

[slipstick]

OK, let's change the game a little bit. Let's say there are 1,000,000 doors, with 999,999 goats and only 1 car. After you choose, the host opens all the doors except the one you chose and the one with the car. Do you still think your odds of winning the car are 50% by sticking with your original choice?

Good point, although I suspect you mean the one with the 999,999/1,000,000 chance of a car. I think I'd switch!

I'll rephrase the question:
OK, let's change the game a little bit. Let's say there are 1,000,000 doors, with 999,999 goats and only 1 car. After you choose, the host opens 999,998 doors, each with a goat behind it. He does not open the door you originally chose or the door with the car. Whether you originally chose the car or a goat, there are only two closed doors remaining, one with a car and one with a goat. Do you still think your odds of winning the car are 50% by sticking with your original choice?

[greerd]

@slipstick, the million doors finally pounded it through my thick skull, I can't argue that, good point, the coup de grâce!

[sphyrth]

"B...b...but slipstick! I'm going to come into the studio WITHOUT KNOWING about the 999,998 doors opened. Now I have a 50% chance of choosing between doors."

[all41]

@slipstick, the million doors finally pounded it through my thick skull, I can't argue that, good point, the coup de grâce!

I was leaning, but still clinging.

If it were a lottery ticket with micro odds and I was offered the opportunity to exchange my ticket
for a guaranteed 50/50 chance of being the winner--I would do it.

So there must be a mathematical advantage with odds of 1/3 however miniscule

[Moem]

We're lucky! The only explanation for this that makes total sense was posted today:

[slipstick]

If only we had known!

[Tech Freak]

We're lucky! The only explanation for this that makes total sense was posted today:

Great explanation!!!