Poll: Will Linux Mint overtake Ubuntu and/or even Windows?

Chat about anything related to Linux Mint

Do you think that Linux Mint will overtake Ubuntu and/or even Windows?

Poll ended at Sun Jun 19, 2011 2:30 pm

Yes Linux Mint will overtake Ubuntu and Windows anytime.
3
7%
Yes Linux Mint will overtake Ubuntu anytime.
17
39%
Yes Linux Mint will overtake Windows anytime (together with Ubuntu).
1
2%
No it will be always behind Windows and Ubuntu.
23
52%
 
Total votes: 44

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Angtagapagligt
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Poll: Will Linux Mint overtake Ubuntu and/or even Windows?

Post by Angtagapagligt »

Hello,

I hear a lot of different meanings about open source and its future.
There are a lot of people who say that Linux is overtaking Windows for private PCs, too.
A few say this will never happen. So what do you think?

Thanks!
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Re: Poll: Will Linux Mint overtake Ubuntu and/or even Window

Post by karashata »

I wouldn't be too surprised if Mint did overtake Ubuntu for a while at some point in the future, but I suspect Ubuntu would eventually come back out on top, being more well-known and all... I highly doubt Mint (or Linux in general) will ever overtake Windows, its user base is much too massive to shift... Too many people who are comfortable with Windows, don't really care, are afraid of Linux for one reason or another, etc...
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Re: Poll: Will Linux Mint overtake Ubuntu and/or even Window

Post by nunol »

The only way Mint or Ubuntu will overtake Windows is if you can buy a computer with Mint/Ubuntu installed just as easily as today you can buy a Windows computer but cheaper.

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Re: Poll: Will Linux Mint overtake Ubuntu and/or even Window

Post by ThistleWeb »

This is like a horse racing question about which of the pack will overtake the others at the finish line.

While almost every retailer on and offline, all around the world only offer PCs with Windows pre-installed, NO other OS has a snowballs chance in hell of coming remotely close to catching up in user share. While Microsoft have the business market sewn up with a network of partners offering Exchange, Sharepoint etc integration Linux has no chance. Until those two issues are properly addressed, the war is over. Or at least the desktop / laptop form factor war is.

Even if it was a winnable fight, how do you count it? When you sell licenses per seat, you can at least count sales. When your update system relies on data being sent back to the mothership to ensure it's a genuine product, you can count that. Any Linux distro can be downloaded once, and installed in 1000's of PCs in an office building, as well as downloaded, burned and not installed, or not even burned to be tried. Do you count IP addresses that hit the update servers like Fedora? If 1000 PCs all go through a corporate router, that counts as 1 IP (the routers).

Even if you did have a reliable gauge, who cares? What does it matter? Personally I use Linux because I like the FOSS idea, and Linux works for me and how I use my PC. Whether I'm in a minority of 10, 1000, 10,000 or 10,000,000 doesn't affect my choices. I advocate it because I feel it's the best solution for most (not all) things most people use a PC for. Linux will always be a minority, a distro is a further minority, and a DE or WM is an even smaller minority of a minority. I'm cool with that.

Embedded devices is where Linux is king. Portable devices also have a strong Linux suite in Android, Meego, Symbian, WebOS. Even Ubuntu and Gnome are aiming for a portable future with their UI changes. Every ebook reader on the market using EInk is embedded Linux, as far as I know there isn't a single ebook reader that's not Linux, although some won't make any play of that fact. My Sony is Monta Vista Linux under the hood. TVs, set top boxes etc are almost all Linux. It's all around people at work and home, and they don't know it. Everything front facing at Google is Linux, all of their services like GMail, docs, blogspot, YouTube, search adwords etc, the lot.....it's ALL Linux powered.

No community distro is going to have the resources to compete on the same level with a company. Ubuntu can and does have a huge group of paid and unpaid people helping to advance their plans.
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Re: Poll: Will Linux Mint overtake Ubuntu and/or even Window

Post by Nexus »

I can see Mint overtaking Ubuntu in popularity eventually, but not Windows. Windows has something no other OS has, large numbers of commercial developers coding 3rd party applications for their system, and no matter how much we'd like to we can't separate Mint from the reasons commercial development dosen't happen on Linux on a large scale.

Sure Linux has tons of people doing development on it's various applications and systems, but Linux severely lacks in the entertainment side of things, namely because of lack of commercial support. Out of the most common uses for a personal computer, Gaming, Web Browsing, Watching Video, Listening to Music, and Communications uses top out the list. Most Linux Distributions can only do 2 of those out of the box, the others require adding software like WINE, and adding Codecs and Browser plugins like Flash Player. The biggest issue is distribution of software, even if I coded a game entirely in languages which almost all linux distributions provide libraries for it would do no good. I'd have to create a package for Redhat based, one for Debian, one for Ubuntu possibly, one for Slackware, one for SUSE, one for Mandriva etc. The fragmentation in terms of file structure and package formats makes Linux extremely unappealing to commercial companies. Having to release something in the form of a .deb, .rpm, .pidi, .SuperDeb etc. is costly in terms of time and long term maintenance. Things like a ppa or other repo system that can allow source code to be compromised isn't appealing either, so for Linux until a unified installer format is adopted among all major distributions you can count on M$ and Apple holding an edge in terms of home use systems.

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Re: Poll: Will Linux Mint overtake Ubuntu and/or even Window

Post by AdamS »

well, in my little neck of the woods. Mint will undoubtedly over take them both.

Why ?

Kuz I am the only business here that legally does this lol.
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Re: Poll: Will Linux Mint overtake Ubuntu and/or even Window

Post by h8r »

This is the same argument about IE vs a plethora of browsers. People who don't have a clue about anything (i.e. government officials, and those who are supported by and support government) will say IE and Windows are set in stone. Predetermined, for all time and eternity.

The rest of the world started using Firefox 7 years ago. Now we're starting to use Linux, too. Trust me, I'm about as mainstream as it gets and Ubuntu hit my radar about 3 weeks ago.

Medicine, carpentry, masonry etc have been around forever. Mainstreaming Linux has only been attempted for the last 7 or so. lol @ the idea Windows will always be "ahead". Maybe governments will continue to use it, but governments have no incentive to progress, or to care about efficiency or cost. The vaaaaaast majority of humans aren't part of the government.

It's an economic imperative that, all things equal (i.e. no government subsidy or restriction to either), the more open and capable OS will be prefered. Thus, government intervention, and the lack of incentives to develop for Linux, have prevented it from becoming mainstream. That's changing.
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Re: Poll: Will Linux Mint overtake Ubuntu and/or even Window

Post by ThistleWeb »

h8r wrote:Medicine, carpentry, masonry etc have been around forever. Mainstreaming Linux has only been attempted for the last 7 or so. lol @ the idea Windows will always be "ahead". Maybe governments will continue to use it, but governments have no incentive to progress, or to care about efficiency or cost. The vaaaaaast majority of humans aren't part of the government.

It's an economic imperative that, all things equal (i.e. no government subsidy or restriction to either), the more open and capable OS will be prefered. Thus, government intervention, and the lack of incentives to develop for Linux, have prevented it from becoming mainstream. That's changing.
Don't let your new found discovery blind you into believing Linux is just about to go mainstream, it's not. You are interested in how a computer works, the fact that the OS is separate from the hardware, and that there's a choice of OS. That alone makes you NOT mainstream. Mainstream people don't know it's IE they use, or Windows. They use a PC to fulfill a task, nothing more.

Don't underestimate just how many lawyers, lobbyists and evangelists Microsoft employ, added to whole departments whose job it is to ensure people are locked into Microsoft services at every stage. When governments at all levels have their "go to special adviser" on anything "IT", who happens to be a Microsoft employee, or Microsoft partner, guess what they're gonna recommend as a solution? When any change in IT policies or laws have a lot of companies lobby them, many of whom are Microsoft partners or front groups, guess which way the laws go?

When businesses look for IT solutions, their primary focus is THEIR business, not IT. They go with what they see as the norm, as it enables them to work better with their own business partners and customers, as well as interacting with government departments for day to day stuff, like taxes. When the standard formats for stuff is Microsoft binary formats, why would they go through the extra hassle of potential incompatibilities?

The pool of staff to call upon who already know Windows, Microsoft Office etc is vast, as are the vast majority of their customers. Why would they put an extra retraining barrier and cost in there when they don't need to? Why would they run the risk of sending / receiving files with customers, government, partners that one can't open properly? Why jump through extra hoops to communicate, remember most businesses are NOT about IT, they use IT to facilitate their real business.

Companies like certainty too, they like deals with other brick and mortar companies with locations their lawyers can find. They respect other companies and tend to follow suit. When Microsoft are making reference to Linux violating their IP and those who use it are potentially in the firing line for lawsuits, it's a risk many simply won't take. They just budget to upgrade from Windows to Windows and pass the costs back down the chain to their customers.

The ecosystem Microsoft has at their disposal is vast, and worldwide, all the way through their chain they have people who only know Windows, whose businesses are entirely dependent on Windows. Those businesses provide the backbone for all sorts of conferences to govt and corporate IT, as well as trade shows for retailers. They don't win because they're better, they won because their underhanded methods went unpunished for long enough that they're glued into position and untouchable in any real terms to account for how they got there. For some people Windows is actually the best option, or even the only option.

On top of ALL of that, Bill Gates got one thing spot on all these years ago; people don't like change. If they use the same thing at home, work, school etc they don't have to relearn anything, they can just get on with stuff. The goal of most mainstream users is simply a means to an end. "I want to check my email" means they have a known pattern of things to do to check their email.

Mint has been the top of the community distros for a while now on merit, I don't see that changing much. How close it gets to Ubuntu will fluctuate every week depending on release cycles among other things, and again it depends on how you count it. Distrowatch counts page views, not downloads or installs. A distro growing too quickly to cope can burn out too and lose users. There was a time where the Mint sites were horrendous because of the amount of traffic among other things. It took time to adjust the back end stuff so that it could cope with that traffic. If you want a quick guide to the difference in size between Ubuntu and Mint try these:

Look at the Ubuntu forum, compare user numbers, compare active users, posts per day etc. Join the Ubuntu and Mint IRC support channels and compare their numbers, of both active and non-active users. Every time I've went into the Ubuntu IRC channel, there's so many people talking that it's like throwing a question into the wind to see it fly off the top of the screen because there's just so many people talking, and that was a couple of years ago when it was a LOT less popular. Look at when the next Mint Developer Summit is, or should I say the first Mint Developer Summit. Ubuntu has events like this with 100's of attendees on a regular basis. By comparison Mint has 2 full time paid members of staff.

I agree that taxpayers money should be spent wisely, governments however are run by corporate and special interests. These organizations don't bankroll political campaigns to be excluded from private comfy chats with decision makers on policy and procurement. Those meetings are then used to spin all sorts of biased, misleading and wrong analysis about legality, IP, cost of ownership, confusion, taxes and jobs lost etc Corporations don't run the risk of only backing one party and being locked out of government if the pesky voters choose the other team. The party name on the door may change, but behind the scenes where it matters, nothing changes.
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Re: Poll: Will Linux Mint overtake Ubuntu and/or even Window

Post by MALsPa »

I can't imagine Mint ever becoming more popular than Windows. No chance.

I don't think it'll become more popular than Ubuntu, either. How would we ever know for sure, anyway? But I couldn't care less, frankly.

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Re: Poll: Will Linux Mint overtake Ubuntu and/or even Window

Post by glas »

Mint may overtake Ubuntu in time simply because it is a better OS and there's no steep learning curve for Ubuntu users.

As for overtaking Windows - probably not in my lifetime. Thistleweb has it spot on in that regard.

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Re: Poll: Will Linux Mint overtake Ubuntu and/or even Window

Post by AdamS »

with infections for windows numbering in the billions. Windows being a massive failure in design and it being intended to be a problem child to keep all windows users dependent on upgrades and new os version releases.

More people move to linux every day.

Mac costs far to much, in hard economic times, Microsoft business practices just shoots them selfs in the foot.

The only things Microsoft has going for it are

1. people who hate change

2. life long dependency is hard to brake with the use of newer and different software choices

What I see happening in the here and now is people are getting fed up. Tired of having there pc fixed due to infections and slow downs due to rot on a never ending 6 to 12 month interval.

Linux has gained GREAT ground over windows over the last few years. I suspect it will continue to do so, mint is a great option, I suspect ubuntu and mint type options will be some prime choices. Ultimate edition and oz unity offering a all in one package has also been a HIT.
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Re: Poll: Will Linux Mint overtake Ubuntu and/or even Window

Post by Habitual »

low hanging fruit.

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Re: Poll: Will Linux Mint overtake Ubuntu and/or even Window

Post by MALsPa »

Gúrú Linux ríomhaire wrote:More people move to linux every day.

Mac costs far to much, in hard economic times, Microsoft business practices just shoots them selfs in the foot.

Gúrú Linux ríomhaire wrote:Linux has gained GREAT ground over windows over the last few years.
Still, when I walk into any store that sells computers, all I see are Windows PCs and Macs.

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Re: Poll: Will Linux Mint overtake Ubuntu and/or even Window

Post by AdamS »

This will not change, they are paid to sell PC,s with windows.

It is called incentive.

It is how Microsoft does business.

Remember - that is just part of the pie.

Private owned business is where Linux moves systems.
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Re: Poll: Will Linux Mint overtake Ubuntu and/or even Window

Post by MALsPa »

Yep, this will not change. Which is why Linux won't overtake Windows.

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Re: Poll: Will Linux Mint overtake Ubuntu and/or even Window

Post by AdamS »

On a retail setting 40% of the market, nope it wont ever change. Linux is free and none profit.

On a private setting, 50% of the market these days. It could very well do so if more people would take the time to learn it and offer it.

There is utterly no incentives being offered for small business or private sector. Facts are windows is a liability to small business and private sector.

Bad for reputation when a pc takes a dump every 6 to 12 months.
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Re: Poll: Will Linux Mint overtake Ubuntu and/or even Window

Post by h8r »

So I guess ThistleWeb and I have somewhat of a running argument across threads.

My point is that in the beginning, change is slow. Near the end of a cycle of domination, however, things speed up, and something always picks up the slack. In my opinion, the computer/information age we're in is among one of the most important advances in history, and it just began. The fact that M$ got off to a powerful start has nothing to do with economic fundamentals, and everything to do with timing and government intervention. Well times change and governments fail at planning economies.

If your strongest point is M$' political connections, that's my strongest point against it. Governments ruin everything they get their hands on. Plus the economic point that there's no reason any company (aside from a government-granted monopoly) should stay at the top forever. Eventually, someone has to provide a better product. I don't know of any other competitor staged better than Linux. I found out about Linux 3 weeks ago, installed Natty on my wifes laptop, and Katya on my grandma's and mother's PCs. Grandma asked how to get to Firefox, and besides that she can't tell the difference between Mint and Windows (with the shining exception that she has no viruses, spyware, adware, etc, whereas before her computer would be loaded within a week after me fixing things up). My mother was stoked to try some new technology, having heard that it looks and feels just like Windows, but it's faster, easier to install, safer, and does everything she needs. She has yet to ask a single question.

Linux wasn't always accessible to the mainstream desktop user, now it is. And it's better than Windows. And Windows will continue to suck worse and worse and Linux will continue to get better and better (economic imperatives of the fact that Windows is in bed with government). My point is that this transition will happen faster than you're willing to give it credit for, and that this transition is about to happen (as opposed to your view that it's been trying to happen for a long time).

The strongest cast for Linux is that it's built by and for humans, on the free market. Everything having to do with government decays over time. With Android out there and its badass reputation, and Ubuntu being pretty new, the world is more ready than ever for Linux.

Sure governments and baby boomers may continue blindly down the path of ages. Good riddance to that ignorant minority.

Finally, your case for Windows is the case against any business entering a market where there's fierce competition and/or government intervention. And yet every day new and innovative products change our lives and our outlook. Windows is old news, and it has a terrible reputation. If you think people will continue to pay higher and higher prices for an ever-worse and aging locked down proprietary product, versus a better product that's free, given the circumstances today not 10 or 15 years ago, then I don't know what to tell you.
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Re: Poll: Will Linux Mint overtake Ubuntu and/or even Window

Post by ThistleWeb »

Linux is built by and for users, Windows is built for it's customers (other companies). Therein lies a HUGE reason why Linux struggles to get a toe hold. PC retailers can sell a Windows PC, knowing they can sell all sorts of addons, including anti-malware subscriptions, as well as knowing the customer will likely return for a paid clean up or two, as well as throwing away a perfectly good PC in a few years to buy a new one. Where is the incentive to sell Linux, which has no upsell, repair or renew value? The Windows model of selling a PC that functions for a while but needs all sorts of paid extras to keep alive, means a LOT of people have jobs.

Linux's user focused approach is a strength in making it what it is, but it's a noose around it's neck for tempting corporations to adopt it. Every good point for users, is a big red X in the list of how corporations can make money from it.

If car makers could sell a car that would last a couple of years, then start to malfunction, they'd jump at the chance. It's NOT in the interests of the customer, but it IS in the interests of the corporations. Corporate always trumps customer in a capitalist system. It's like other industries resisting disruptive technology. They have a LOT of people on a LOT of gravy trains with the current system. A change of approach means a lot of job loses, even companies folding from that industry. Those people won't leave, they will just get jobs elsewhere, but it's not much fun for shareholders banking their pensions on companies who find themselves obsolete.
h8r wrote:So I guess ThistleWeb and I have somewhat of a running argument across threads.
There is no running debate across threads, I just find it hilarious that a whopping three weeks into a new discovery that you have everything figured out, that people who have been using Linux for years have clearly been missing, like we've not seen the bigger picture develop over the years. Don't get me wrong, your enthusiasm is welcome, I'm thrilled that you're enjoying Linux, and like you most of us want to go shout it from the rooftops that we've found this cool new thing, and that others should jump on it too. You're still in the "new toy" phase, after that wears off it becomes a tool to get a job done. The same applies when your Linux advocacy hits the brick wall called Real Politik.

Most of us have to use Windows at work, school etc we are the Windows admin for our non-techy friends and family. We see every retailer on and offline, big and small in every country on the planet offer ONLY Windows. We see business after business after business as all Windows shops. A key to not being disillusioned with the fight is to see it realistically for what it is. It's the difference between two sports teams at opposite ends of the professional and financial spectrum, and thinking it's going to be a close contest, when reality says otherwise. If you condition yourself to think Linux is close to a break through, all it does is set you up for fall after fall as time passes and reality bites back.
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Re: Poll: Will Linux Mint overtake Ubuntu and/or even Window

Post by h8r »

I just find it hilarious that a whopping three weeks into a new discovery that you have everything figured out
I don't have everything figured out, and economics isn't new.

Windows won't be dominant forever, especially because it's in bed with government. Governments ruin everything they touch, and honestly Windows isn't that great to begin with. People have used it by necessity, not by choice, not because it's better.

It's my view, and we may agree to disagree, that the attempt to mainstream Linux for the home desktop user is brand new. Of course it's in the beginning of it's life, that's why we see the amount of home users trying Linux exploding. And, as a corollary, we see the amount of people frustrated with and willing to abandon Windows expanding.

My point is that this trend is brand new (in my opinion it started in 2004 with Ubuntu, and made a pretty big jump this year with Natty), not something people have been trying desperately to achieve for decades. Oh, and guess what? Ubuntu is a business and finds capital on the market.
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Re: Poll: Will Linux Mint overtake Ubuntu and/or even Window

Post by AdamS »

One thing is certain.

Microsoft is consistent if anything.

Windows 8 will undoubtedly have a massive amount of flaws built in just like every other version of windows ever released.

Tried the beta my self, it is just a windows 7 with minor changes, just like vista to windows 7.

Microsoft's problems with infections and rot wont end any time soon.

Thus forcing the fed up to look for alternatives.

Guys like me will be right there ready and willing to point out there is no reason to suffer any more. There is more and more like me every day.

Still far to few, I have clients who move. Try to find a local business that specializes in Linux and have no luck.

Why ?

kuz they never took the time to learn more then turn key.
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