Prediction: Linux stock rises in 2016 and beyond

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igor83

Prediction: Linux stock rises in 2016 and beyond

Post by igor83 »

According to TheVerge, future processors will only work with Windows 10, not previous versions of Windows. Basically, everyone is being nudged toward the Windows 10 precipice, and Microsoft isn't making allowances for those that want to remain with older versions. I don't think everyone is going to be down for the Windows 10 upgrade, and having just one supported flavor of Windows is probably a weakness rather than a strength. Forcing people to move to a new version of Windows, with its cost, and to upgrade hardware and/or software, tempts them to experiment with other options, such as Linux. I think that Linux in general has become a viable alternative to Windows, and that more people, especially techies, have grown aware of it. The fact that phones and the web run on Linux is enough to spur a techie's curiosity. After downloading something nice, like Linux Mint 17.3 Cinnamon :D, there is a big surprise at how easy everything is and how much faster the entire process is as compared to Windows.

Because of the hardware, software, and initial costs associated with Windows 10, I predict that Linux will be on at least 10% of desktops by 2024. Home users will continue to be the biggest adopters. Of course, if Android and other phone systems are counted, Linux has already exceeded that market share many times. An interesting Wikipedia page asserts that 1.5% of desktops use Linux. Another half-percentage use Chrome OS, which is a proprietary version of Linux, and 3% are unknown, and probably Linux after all.

I don't use Linux because of cost. I prefer Linux Mint whatever the cost. I can't recall the last time Linux ever crashed without the hardware being at fault. It feels faster, and I don't like the way Windows 10 wants to run all kinds of background processes to collect information and send it on to their advertising partners. In Linux, I can do whatever I want to do to the system. I install software from trusted PPA's and don't have to worry about what an .exe file is going to do. Anti-viruses are another irritation in Windows. I don't want to visit Microsoft's App Store or whatever it is. I doubt it would have half of what I use. It would not even have the games I play. So, Linux has the advantages of cost, reliability, privacy, and security.
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Pierre
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Re: Prediction: Linux stock rises in 2016 and beyond

Post by Pierre »

there is a school-of-thought that says something like:
"no matter what Microsoft does, people will still stay with their Operating System".
be that, that it is plain 'ol intertia, stupidity or what ever - it's a very true statement.

there will always those who stick to their Windows PC - no matter what.
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Re: Prediction: Linux stock rises in 2016 and beyond

Post by BigEasy »

Every OS is just launch pad for applications you need. No reason Linux stock will rise because software manufacturers still ignoring it.
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Re: Prediction: Linux stock rises in 2016 and beyond

Post by GreyGeek »

The smartphone has hit the PC market hard, especially the desktop/laptop market.
PC sales have stagnated or declined, which means that new Windows installs have done the same. Most new Windows sales come from forced upgrades. The segment hit the hardest are Windows users, and the number of Windows users have declined rapidly, just as the number of iPhone and Android users have sky rocketed. The last time I checked Android held over 70% of the smartphone market, and Android is built on top of Linux. Several hardware vendors, like System76, are devoted to selling PCs with Linux installed.

The usual percentages cited for OS market share comes from folks like NetApplications, a Windows EXE rebrander with skin in the game. The 1% market share it gives for the Linux market share is a ludicrous number. Over 95% of supercomputers run Linux. All of Holoywood's graphics farms reside on Linux. Most banks have switched to Linux. The government's of Russia, China, France, a lot of German cities, and a host of other national, state and local governments have switched to Linux for security reasons and to cut costs. Distrowatch has no skin in the game (it's not selling anything except ad space) and consulting its OS detail page under its awstats page reveals that 45% of its visitors are using Windows, 3% Mac, and the rest some distro of Linux. The most popular Linux distro is "unknown", with Debian, Ubuntu, Fedora and SUSE combined accounting for less than 10%.

The Mac market is saturated at about 10%. Those who can afford Macs have already bought them. Windows is declining and Linux is climbing. In 2004 the Linux share was 4%, in 2008 it was 8%, (PE Mag,Gartner) and I'd estimate it to be around 12-16% of desktop market share. In 2006 I read a paper which modeled the PC market share and examined several variables which influenced it. It predicted that by around 2021 the PC market share would be split 40-40-20 +- 5% for each.

Every since the MS v DOJ trial, which outlawed exclusionary contracts between PC vendors and MS, control of the vendors has been maintained because PCs became a commodity market with razor thin or non-existent profit margins. MS stepped in an paid PC vendors to feature their hardware in Windows ads. If they tried to sell Linix to the exploding Linux market share they lost their MS ad revenue, or their per PC charge for Windows suddenly increased.

In 2012 Shuttlesworth cut off Kubuntu and the other step kids and announced the 5 year LTS plan, with the first ending in 2017. Next year. I stated then that it appeared to me to be an all or nothing kind of move. Start making a profit by 2017 or start bailing. I predict that by 2021 Shuttleworth will get out of both the OS and smartphone markets because of his failure to persuade PC or smartphone hardware makers to use Ubuntu. Supposedly he has finally turned a profit on the server market, which RedHat dominates. Is that enough to keep hope alive? Time will tell. If Shuttlesworth quits the only components those who base off of Ubuntu won't be able to use is the branding, or Unity. However, some group will have to pick up the server load and the manpower to maintain the repository.

The possible and likely world wide financial collapse will cloud the picture considerably. How many Gb of apps reside in the repositories? Now may be a good time to download them all and store them on an HD.
Last edited by GreyGeek on Thu Jan 21, 2016 4:13 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Prediction: Linux stock rises in 2016 and beyond

Post by BigEasy »

Thinking about percents is very dangerous thing. Only correct way is think about quantity.
GreyGeek wrote:PC sales have stagnated or declined, which means that new Windows installs have done the same. Most new Windows sales come from forced upgrades. The segment hit the hardest are Windows users, and the number of Windows users have declined rapidly, just as the number of iPhone and Android users have sky rocketed.
It's mistake to calculate users those way. First off all, do not confuse numbers and percents. For example, me is Windows, Linux and Android user simultaneously. Windows was first, then Linux, then Android (this is why Android rocketed). And all is three different things.
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Re: Prediction: Linux stock rises in 2016 and beyond

Post by GreyGeek »

BigEasy wrote:Thinking about percents is very dangerous thing. Only correct way is think about quantity.
GreyGeek wrote:PC sales have stagnated or declined, which means that new Windows installs have done the same. Most new Windows sales come from forced upgrades. The segment hit the hardest are Windows users, and the number of Windows users have declined rapidly, just as the number of iPhone and Android users have sky rocketed.
It's mistake to calculate users those way. First off all, do not confuse numbers and percents. For example, me is Windows, Linux and Android user simultaneously. Windows was first, then Linux, then Android (this is why Android rocketed). And all is three different things.
The number of people who use all three OS's are small percentage of the entire population of digital device users. That said, percentages come from numbers, and no other sources. Your point is that there are several subsets of the total number of users:
Windows + iPhone
Windows + WinPhone (very small subset)
Windows+ Android (large, since Android has over 70% of the smartphone market)
Mac + iPhone
Mac + WinPhone (probably infinitely small subset)
Mac + Android
Linux + WinPhone (zero?)
Linux +iPhone (sizable)
Linux + Android (large, since Android has over 70% of the smartphone market)
Windows + Linux + Android (small to medium?)
Windows + Mac + Android (?)
Linux + Mac + iPhone (?)
Linux + Mac + Android (?)

Using a Ven Diagram, which I am too lazy to do right now, one can isolate the subsets of Windows and Linux and make comparisons based on percentages, which would be based on the numbers in the subsets.

But, to make a long math problem short, we can discount Mac devices because they comprise less than 10% of the desktop market share. Being free Linux does not inspire support from media which earn ad income from proprietary software houses and usually don't bite the hand that feeds them, hence NetApplications uses their server OS statistics to claim that only 1% of those machines that visit their site are Linux machines, hence Linux has only 1% of the market share. Self-serving and faulty logic. But, using their logic I can claim that based on DistroWatch OS statistics Linux has 47% of the market share.
[urlhttp://distrowatch.com/awstats/awstats.DistroWatch.com.osdetail.html][/url]
Statistics for: DistroWatch.com Awstats Web Site
Last Update: 18 Jan 2016 - 22:00
Reported period: Month Jan 2016

Operating Systems
Versions Hits Percent
Windows 27,739,470 42.1 %
Windows XP 1,379,888 2 %
Microsoft XBOX 1 0 %
Windows Vista 4,315,195 6.5 %
Windows (unknown version) 154,383 0.2 %
Windows NT 9,450,600 14.3 %
Windows ME 772 0 %
Windows Vista (LongHorn) 368,336 0.5 %
Windows Mobile 1,619 0 %
Windows 98 2,764 0 %
Windows 95 2,195 0 %
Windows 7 11,988,416 18.2 %
Windows 2008 1 0 %
Windows 2003 50,658 0 %
Windows 2000 13,447 0 %
Windows 3.xx 11,195 0 %
BSD 165,293 0.2 %
OpenBSD 35,795 0 %
NetBSD 7,036 0 %
GNU/kFreeBSD 76 0 %
FreeBSD 122,386 0.1 %
Linux 31,209,870 47.4 %
Zenwalk GNU Linux 643 0 %
Vine Linux 739 0 %
VectorLinux 89 0 %
Ubuntu 1,446,557 2.1 %
Suse 4,110 0 %
Red Hat 4,071 0 %
PCLinuxOS 831 0 %
Mandriva (or Mandrake) 1,944 0 %
Gentoo 2,024 0 %
Fedora 8,978 0 %
Debian 9,112 0 %
Centos 904 0 %
ASPLinux 1 0 %
Google Android 2,422,221 3.6 %
GNU Linux (Unknown or unspecified distribution) 27,307,646 41.5 %
Macintosh 4,089,904 6.2 %
Mac OS X 4,086,497 6.2 %
Mac OS 3,407 0 %
Others 2,558,596 3.8 %
Unknown 2,278,320 3.4 %
Unknown Unix system 216,053 0.3 %
Java Mobile 26,651 0 %
BlackBerry 9,785 0 %
Java 9,041 0 %
Sun Solaris 5,486 0 %
Sony PlayStation 5,393 0 %
Symbian OS 4,804 0 %
Nintendo Wii 1,377 0 %
OS/2 596 0 %
BeOS 200 0 %
Irix 173 0 %
CP/M 154 0 %
iOS (iPhone/iPod/iPad/...) 138 0 %
Aix 100 0 %
GNU Hurd 97 0 %
RISC OS 82 0 %
AmigaOS 61 0 %
Syllable 56 0 %
Commodore 64 28 0 %
HP UX 1 0 %
Notice that 42% of the visitors to DistroWatch are Windows users and 47% are Linux users. Ven diagram analysis might come close to those figures.
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Re: Prediction: Linux stock rises in 2016 and beyond

Post by all41 »

This is a link to a cross-platform GPS application:
http://www.gpsbabel.org/download.html
The download numbers for the prior release on Dec 23, 2015:
gpsbable.png
Post your conclusions
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Re: Prediction: Linux stock rises in 2016 and beyond

Post by Fragezeichen »

You can't really draw any conclusions out of that because

1) most Linux users obtain their software only through official repositories as opposed to downloading it from a website
2) it is a source code tar archive requiring manual compilation which is something a lot of Linux users, especially the non-techie ones, are not familiar with

Having said that, I don't think the current desktop market share of Linux systems exceeds 10%, but I also don't estimate it to be as little as 1%.
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Re: Prediction: Linux stock rises in 2016 and beyond

Post by Mr.October »

GreyGeek wrote: Notice that 42% of the visitors to DistroWatch are Windows users and 47% are Linux users. Ven diagram analysis might come close to those figures.
Isn't Distrowatch.com a site especially for Linux users? When so, it is amazing how many Windows users still come there (42% as you write). The amount of Linux users is just slightly higher, which to me seems very odd.
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Re: Prediction: Linux stock rises in 2016 and beyond

Post by capivara »

Mr.October wrote:
GreyGeek wrote: Notice that 42% of the visitors to DistroWatch are Windows users and 47% are Linux users. Ven diagram analysis might come close to those figures.
Isn't Distrowatch.com a site especially for Linux users? When so, it is amazing how many Windows users still come there (42% as you write). The amount of Linux users is just slightly higher, which to me seems very odd.
Wishful thinking would be that Windows users are interested in Linux/BSD. More probable is that Linux users surf the WWW at work, inevitably on a Windows machine.

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Re: Prediction: Linux stock rises in 2016 and beyond

Post by Mr.October »

capivara wrote: Wishful thinking would be that Windows users are interested in Linux/BSD. More probable is that Linux users surf the WWW at work, inevitably on a Windows machine.

Hans
Aha, that's it, didn't think of that. Thank you.
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Re: Prediction: Linux stock rises in 2016 and beyond

Post by Joss »

GreyGeek wrote:The possible and likely world wide financial collapse will cloud the picture considerably. How many Gb of apps reside in the repositories? Now may be a good time to download them all and store them on an HD.
Very well considered.
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