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Joe Public will buy the "Pinebook ][" because it will be DIRT CHEAP and do all the things 90% of the population actually want a laptop to do... which is very little actually.

https://www.pine64.org/?product=pinebook

You might be right, just look at Android on phones, and it's now the #1 used operating system in the world today based on website contact statistics. And when you look just at smartphones,windows has been totally whipped and almost out of the market. Chromebooks outsold Mac this year, especially among school age youth. It just shows that windows CAN be beaten if the product fits the market niche better. The younger crowd is embracing alternate OS choices and THEY are the future.

Jedinovice wrote:In regards to Linux winning the Desktop war - I actually believe it is inevitable for a mass of reasons, many of which are NOT presented here!

As it stands, we have learned in recent years that Joe Public does not really want a fully specced out, multi-purpose laptop (certainly not a desktop unless they are a gamer.) Joe public is only really interested in browsing, social media, streaming media and selfies.appliance.

I feel that I speak for the average user and we also use our "appliance" for shopping and banking as well as weather (I am looking at my links now) and sites like craigslist. Even the average user is playing simple games like solitaire, chess etc. Embedded graphics in even the smallest computers now are capable of playing some pretty high end games so that may change.

In just the last 2 years the search ability of computers has increased dramatically. The average user has become aware of that and is using their smartphones computer to answer almost any question. I think this is an unforeseen advantage of the computer age. The average user is now one really smart cookie.

Many of the perceived deficiencies of Linux have been overcome in just this last two years and improvements are made daily. Still, it takes years for people to break old habits. I have shown new things to friends but it takes about seven years for the group to adopt even the best plans.

It is like the old saying "You can lead a horse to water but you can't make it drink".

@ Jedinovice, .......

Jedinovice wrote:Given the Pinebook is, essentially, no more than a more capable Chromebook and Chromebooks have been a super best seller for years now - it's going to be a winner and Joe Public will buy the "Pinebook ][" because it will be DIRT CHEAP and do all the things 90% of the population actually want a laptop to do... which is very little actually.

.
I humbly disagree.

The non-mainstream and very cheap Linux-on-ARM Pinebook is like a smartphone where users could not reinstall the OS, ie Ubuntu-on-ARM, or install another Linux distro or OS. Linux Mint does not support ARM processors, ie users cannot install LM on Pinebooks.
... So, like the earlier cheap Intel Atom Windows 2-in-1 touchscreen tablets and ARM-based Surface RT Windows netbooks, Pinebooks will also likely fail to take hold in the mass market. For reference ...
https://fossbytes.com/pine64-pinebook-review-laptop/
https://eewiki.net/display/linuxonarm/A ... uXino-LIME
https://www.pcworld.com/article/3129300 ... r-arm.html

Chromebooks, based on a Web OS, are well-supported by Google, ie a lot of Web-apps available. Users can at least reimage Chrome OS for System Image Recovery. Chromebooks can be dual-booted with a Linux distro through Crouton. I doubt users can do the same with the Linux-on-ARM Pinebooks, ie users may have no recourse for System Recovery if the Pinebook's Ubuntu OS gets borked.

@Jedinovie
Some of what you say is true but a lot of it doesn't relate to what I experience working here in the IT industry in the UK and from what I can see other parts of the world. Also your conclusions are, in my opinion, way off.

Joe Public, we have learned, wants their computer to be used as an appliance. That's where Chromebooks, tablets and smartphones have DECIMATED the old "full laptop" industry. Indeed, we cannot even talk about 'computers' any more. We have to talk about laptops. Twenty years ago I would talk about a computer. Now I have to talk about laptops because nobody knows what a computer is anymore!! Seriously. I discovered even in the UK that when I spoke about "a computer" or " a PC" people looked at me blankly. I had to say '"laptop" for them to grasp the subject being discussed! People no longer know what a PC or tower or desktop is any more. Yes, there are gamers and specialists, but we're talking about Uncle Joe here.

Firstly this is a bit confusion because you say that Chromebooks, tablets and smartphones have DECIMATED the old 'full laptop' industry and then go one to say we cannot even talk about computers any more we have to talk about laptops. I don't quite see how the two relate. I would say that mainly it's more specifically smartphones and tablets that have disrupted the desktop/laptop industry and now it is more likely to find that people no longer require either a desktop or a laptop as they are happy with their smartphone/tablet instead.

Secondly I don't know anyone (and neither do friends and colleagues) that doesn't know what a 'computer' or a 'PC' is in the UK. While this is not a definitive study it's certainly enough to say that it's incorrect to say no-one knows what a computer, desktop or PC is anymore. While it's true that more people talk to me now with problems with their laptop it's still much more likely they say they have a problem with their computer and then I find out it's a laptop.

Desktops outside the office (and even then!) barely exist now. 'Everyone' uses laptops. Now, I have to use laptops!! But Joe public went with a laptop over a tower system years and years ago partly because laptops were smaller and could sit in a corner and looked more like an appliance than a Kom-poo-tur. Joe Public had no use case that really required a laptop (which commonly cost more than a mini-tower system) but it was an all in one unit Uncle Joe (often Auntie Jill, actually) could grasp in terms of an appliance.

Desktops certainly exist outside the office still and a friend of mine was only saying today how it's still them that the majority of people ask him questions about. However I do agree that laptops have certainly become more popular over the years but I would say smartphones and tablets have become even more popular than that. Also if people were so worried about having something that looks like an appliance then 'all-in-one' PCs would surely be starting to dominate (they aren't).

As far as in the office goes it's still massively in favour if desktops. While the more management level have moved towards laptops more in a regular office usage, warehouses, etc the desktop still dominates (I could be wrong as it's just my experience of my 25+ years in the industry and looking at some figures).

So... Joe Public does not give a stuff about their hardware or OS as long as they can get online on a cheapo laptop. In fact, most users do not care about speed as long as they can stream HD video. I know because if speed mattered I would not be tripping over broken Windows 7 laptops that grind from the virus checker which does not work and the all the viruses that infest laptops here! Nobody cares because they get to go on Facebook... and even there they Facebook more with smartphone than laptop.

This is true up to a point. People no longer care about their hardware or OS as long as they can get online and do what they want (facebook, twitter, etc) but they are not doing that on a cheapo laptop they are doing it on their smartphone and tablets. This is an argument for smartphones/tablets DECIMATING the desktop/laptop market not an argument for laptops DECIMATING the desktop market.

And now we move onto the Pinebook.

Firstly 'selling like hot cake's is a very subjective term and not backed up by any real kind of stats. Even if true (I admit I haven't check into it in great detail) evidence of a 'year long queue' is not evidence of great demand and popularity it's more likely evidence of a limited production and supply chain.

Working in the IT industry (filled with geeks and engineers I think we can all agree) I don't know of a single person that has or is intending to get a Pinebook. I know loads of people that have Raspberry PIs, Arduinos, etc and do all sorts of cool development and projects using them but the days of that kind of thing leading onto a market changing shift (like in the days of the old 8 bit pioneers) are long behind us I'm afraid.

Now we come to the crux of the issue though.

Given the Pinebook is, essentially, no more than a more capable Chromebook and Chromebooks have been a super best seller for years now - it's going to be a winner and Joe Public will buy the "Pinebook ][" because it will be DIRT CHEAP and do all the things 90% of the population actually want a laptop to do... which is very little actually.

Let's ignore the

more capable Chromebook and Chromebooks have been a super best seller for years now

to avoid a hardware style comparison discussion or about how just because one thing is a best seller something similar won't necessarily be a best seller style discussion.

Looking at the Pinebook it would appear to cost $89 for the 11.6" model and $99 for the 14" model. Let's assume it's a fully functional, consumer ready product (the Pinebook Plus 2020 if you will) and it can do 90% of every that Joe Public (as you call them) want to do. Why would I buy it?. That 90% is already done by my smartphone and my tablet and I already have them because they also do more that the Pinebook (or similar) will never do.

In my view the Pinebook (or similar) for consumer usage is not going to be competing with a laptop, desktop, chromebook, etc it's going to be competing with a smartphone or tablet. While laptops/desktops are still used for a lot of daily usage for people they are also used for when you want to go beyond that and once you get to that point people will pay a bit more because the other 90% is already done by the other devices they own.

Once ARM and Linux can come together to provide a cheap Chromebook killer, it's only a matter of time before Linux and ARM both become the new industry standards.

Really. Why is a 'Chromebook killer' specifically needed for it to become the 'industry standard'? Even the Chromebook hasn't come anywhere near to begin becoming and kind of 'industry standard'. Plus while this could possibly be more valid for a consumer end as far as in industrial (office, warehouse, etc) usage how is it going to overcome the other issues such as unique software requirements, the extra expenses required to maintain Linux based systems, etc.

Having said all that it doesn't mean I agree with the original thread topic that Linux will never win the desktop war I just think the whole issue will become more and more of a non-issue as we more more and more away from traditional desktop/laptop usage models. In the end Linux would win the desktop war just in time to find out that desktops (including laptops, etc) fall completely out of use.

The following run on ARM. Debian, Fedora, Ubuntu, Manjaro, Arch

As for Mint on ARM, it might work if an ARM capable Kernel was installed. Just guessing on that one.

UpholderOfTruth wrote:the extra expenses required to maintain Linux based systems,

What extra expenses?

Jedinovice wrote:Given the Pinebook is, essentially, no more than a more capable Chromebook and Chromebooks have been a super best seller for years now - it's going to be a winner and Joe Public will buy the "Pinebook ][" because it will be DIRT CHEAP and do all the things 90% of the population actually want a laptop to do... which is very little actually.

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I humbly disagree.

That's your right but you are clearly not understanding the nature or significance of the Pinebook.

PLease be careful about what I actually wrote. I did NOT say that the Pinebook ITSELF would be the ARM/Linux laptop. I stated explicitly that it was NOT! I said it was the pioneer - the geek machine frm which the true ARM/Linux laptop would appear! We're not there yet! It just a key step along the road. I am telling you now, giving the HUGE demand there has been for the Pinebook, that the techies are out there tinkering, compiling and working to get those "missing apps" onto the Pinebook. Indeed, that process is well underway for the Pi and the Pinebook is really just a laptop Pi!

The Altair 8800 was not a great machine but it was a pioneer. It died out but it created legacy that was passed onto more successful machines.

In regards to the OS - sure you can install your own OS. Who says you cannot. I have not read anything to contrary. I've read every review you've linked to before. I know the data. The Pinebook is based on the Pine64 Raspberry Pi 'clone' where you can install any ARM based O/S you like. Windows 10S is built to run on ARM and is slanted to replace Win32 Windows. Only... Microsoft is going to have a hell of a job porting apps over to Windos 10S and ARM based Pi is well, well ahead!

Indeed, note, in regards to O/S, Ubuntu supports ARM. Here: from the FOSS review, I quote; "Upon first powering on the unit, you’ll see that it is running Ubuntu, which isn’t a surprise. Given the particularly slim specifications, the PINEBOOK team opted for the MATE variant of Ubuntu."

So, from the start the user gets a fully supported, mainstream Linux distro with access to key apps. You can install and backup any O/S you like. The Pinebook is virtually a laptop casing to the Pine64 and you can do all that on a Pine64 already.

Sure, the Pinebook will not run Mint but Mint is not Linux. Of course Pinebook based laptops are going to have to run with different, ARM based variants of Linux but that's already the case with the Raspberry Pi which has also been a smash hit and spawned masses of successful copies. Indeed, it could be argued that we already back in the 8 bit pioneering world of development with the Pi with teens coding and compiling as I type!

Yes, we are going to have to work with ARM based distros vs X86 distros and Mint is firmly x86 and will be, I am sure, for a very long time. Doesn't stop other distros emerging and/or growing from Raspberry Pi.

In terms of software... Note, as I say, that we know that Joe Public does not want a lot in terms of software. My wife uses about four apps. That's it. She uses them a lot mind, but we're only talking a browser, wordprocessor, media player... er, probably it. Throw those on a cheapo laptop and you have a winner! I can also tell you that outside of games, that's probably it for 80% of the users I know. OK, let's add in a PDF reader but they are common in ARM distros already.

But not only that... The Pinebook has not been developed in a vacuum. It has been built up on the basis of existing Pi hardware and software. Loads of people, including young children, are pumping out code on those little machines! Seriously! And, because Linux is open source, the source for all those lovely x86 apps, ready to be ported to ARM, already exists and is, er, open for compiling. Yes, I know there's more to getting an app ported to new hardware beyond just re-compiling but it's a HUGE head start! The techies who want the ARM/Linux laptop to fly are going to be working hard to make it happen and now they have the tools!

As it is, I investigated how much S/W is actually available for ARM in Linux and it exceeded my expectations! Heck, you can already load up A Raspberry Pi (or Pine64) and install ALL the most essential apps and run - including browsers and Libreoffice.

See here:
https://www.techrepublic.com/article/ca ... r-work-pc/

The Pinebook was the next logical step from the Pi. Note that the CPU's are only going to get faster while Linux's app footprint will remain small, unlike Windows which exists to force you to buy new hardware as it all consumes more resources.

In regards to the Chromebook - the Google Chrome apps are all, er, online. In order to review student essays I had had to get students to log onto Google docs on my Linux laptop and load up their data. If you can run up a browser you can access Google apps. So if the user wants to use Google apps they can on the Pinebook but they will ALSO be able to run locally installed Linux apps! Win-win-win!

In terms of appeal, consider also the following:

LOADS of kids are being taught technology on Pi's in schools! Many are coding and even creating with Pi's at home. I was staggered by the appeal of Pi's to young minds. Arguably I should not have been as it those young minds that were hacking around with ZX81's back in the days but there you go. We have a new generation that are not being reared solely on Windows.

In fact, loads of schools have also standardized on Chromebooks. So, the jump from a Chromebook to a Pinebook][ will hardly be the huge leap it would be the Windows-only generation. Yes, there is a LOT of legacy Widows lock in in industry and will be fore years and years but, as I say, certainly for home use, the Pinebook ][ I am convinced will be a winner and spawn other ARM/Linux laptops.

Add to that limited funds for students at college and the need for portability and battery life over raw power and the Pinebook, in principle, becomes the logical choice. Heck, by going Linux I saved a fortune on hardware and software for my business start up this year!

Now note carefully what I say here: The appeal of ARM and Pinebook][ will not be IMMEDIATE. Like the original 8 bit machines it will be techies who buy them at first and tinker. But then it will spread.

You wait and see.

Based on history, I would say we have another two years before the hardware/software breakthrough really occurs but the essential work is taking place now and the tools needed to make the mass market ARM/Linux are in place now!

Besides, frankly, who says the whole world has to be x86? Frankly, only legacy. Microsoft has seen the future and produced Windows 10S to... run on ARM.

I stand by my prediction.

Jedinovice wrote:In regards to Linux winning the Desktop war - I actually believe it is inevitable for a mass of reasons, many of which are NOT presented here!

I stand by my original complaint. As long as end-users have to deal with annoyances like caps lock indicators not working because kernel devs can't be sussed to deal with the mundanity or difficulty of fixing the bug, they will tend to stay away.

As I wrote, earlier: I spend much of my on-line time amongst non-techy types. I see and hear what their priorities are, and why they've either not tried Linux, or tried and abandoned it.

That being said...

Jedinovice wrote:... the dirt cheap OS ARM/Linux Pinebook is upon us and selling like hot cakes! Want one? Join the year long queue!

Done! And thanks for mentioning it. Looks like it'll be something amusing to play with. Heck, for $99, it'd be hard to go wrong

Heck, maybe, by then, I'll have decided to get back into software development again and I'll be able to help.

Jedinovice wrote:... the dirt cheap OS ARM/Linux Pinebook is upon us and selling like hot cakes! Want one? Join the year long queue!

Done! And thanks for mentioning it. Looks like it'll be something amusing to play with. Heck, for $99, it'd be hard to go wrong

Heck, maybe, by then, I'll have decided to get back into software development again and I'll be able to help.

See! See! Somebody gets it! Quite - for the price, who cares??!!

Seriously, if there was a Pinebook with spinning rust and Kdenlive available (KDE HAS been ported over to ARM! I double checked that one and my jaw dropped! But the KDE team are very focused on convergence) but not Kdenlive.. I would buy one! Well, except they do not ship to Asia yet and the authorities might take a dim view of my buying direct. Indonesia is very protectionist at the moment.

But, in principle, I would buy one if I could, even just as a user. I need spinning rust and Kdenlive, mind. But everything else I would need is already there in Pi-land in term of S/W... I think,

@ Jedinovice, .......

Jedinovice wrote:...

.
The ARM processor was specifically designed for smartphones and tablets because such devices have to be mobile, small, very thin, fanless, battery-powered and wirelessly connected to the Internet. Hence, ARM chips have to be small, thin and are purposely "crippled" to be power-sipping and slow(= low frequency) so as not to over-heat the mobile devices and over-drain the battery quickly = ARM-based mobile devices cannot be put under heavy load, eg having more than 10 browser tabs opened, bitcoin mining, video-editing, game development, etc.
... Also, the OS running on ARM-based mobile devices cannot normally be clean-reinstalled, eg Android(= Linux), iOS, Win 10 Mobile. In comparison, the OS running on x-86-based desktops/laptops can usually be clean-reinstalled. Hence, smartphones and tablets are like disposable items = Planned Obsolescence.

For larger laptops and desktops, there is no design needs to put the "crippled" ARM processors/chips in them instead of the full-featured x-86 processors, ie they do not need to be small, very thin, fanless, battery-powered and wirelessly connected to the Internet.

Personally, I would not buy an ARM-based laptop/desktop, no matter how cheap they are, eg the US$99 ARM-on-Ubuntu 14" Pinebook. Being "forced" to buy an ARM-based Android smartphone for US$99 is already bad enough, eg cannot upgrade Android or clean-reinstall Android if it gets infected or the Flash storage becomes borked or corrupted.

Anyway, Google's Android, a Linux derivative, has already won the ARM-based smartphone and tablet world market.

It's possible for the normal x-86 Linux to win the desktop and laptop if Google acquires Canonical-Ubuntu or Clem-Linux Mint, for example.

Spearmint2 wrote:The following run on ARM. Debian, Fedora, Ubuntu, Manjaro, Arch

As for Mint on ARM, it might work if an ARM capable Kernel was installed. Just guessing on that one.

I doubt it. The kernel alone does not an O/S make. All the libraries and utilities that make up Mint would have to be ported over as well. A huge job and would have to be maintained.

I expect there to be more ARM based distros growing and developing alongside x86 instead... which is, indeed, what is happening.
Eventually there will be a Mint like ARM distro for Pi's and, by extension, the Pinebook '2020.'

UpholderOfTruth wrote:@Jedinovie
Some of what you say is true but a lot of it doesn't relate to what I experience working here in the IT industry in the UK and from what I can see other parts of the world. Also your conclusions are, in my opinion, way off.

HI upholder, i have all but finished a Looonnng reply to all your 'concerns' but it's 2AM here and I really gotta get some sleep. I want to review my response, clean out at least some of the typos and probably add anime, er, emoticons, to temper the feel of the text. Discussion can make someone sound aggressive when they are just asserting/arguing dispassionately. I don't want to flame you in anyway way.

So wait for my reply, OK? I think you have made a couple of errors that have thrown you "off scent!" But give me time, OK?

Hey, at least I'm optimistic here!
And, believe me,I am not a natural optimist. I'm actually an idealist but that tends towards disappointment!

Not a problem I too tried to post a longer reply but it appears to have got lost. Maybe it will turn up eventually but for now I will await your reply. (Please skip the anime, emoticons, etc they don't help the discussion. Unlike a lot of internet users I assume you mean nothing personal so no need to 'temper the feel' on my behalf.)

Moem wrote:What extra expenses?

I'm not talking hardware, software, infrastructure costs there. I'm more leaning towards the costs of the administrators tends to be higher, Windows administrators are common as much (he, he just kidding), and the costs of maintaining the individual systems tends to be higher in manpower, e.g. training staff (as much as we may not like it not as many people know Linux and the 'alternative' applications).

Those extra expenses, if they exist at all, sound like they would be temporary. I have no reason to assume Linux admins are more expensive than Windows admins. And once people are used to Linux, it's not harder than Windows. Many people are only used to Windows because that's what they use at work...

JSeymour wrote:As long as end-users have to deal with annoyances like caps lock indicators not working because kernel devs can't be sussed to deal with the mundanity or difficulty of fixing the bug, they will tend to stay away.

I've put duct tape over the indicators on my keyboard because I'm sick of having blue LEDs in my face. Same deal with the speakers as well.

I'm quite capable of telling if my caps lock is on or off without having a light to tell me.

michael louwe wrote:It's possible for the normal x-86 Linux to win the desktop and laptop if Google acquires Canonical-Ubuntu or Clem-Linux Mint, for example.

*shudder*

I think I'd have to move to FreeBSD--or at least a Linux not derived from, or in any way dependent upon, Ubuntu.

Moem wrote:Those extra expenses, if they exist at all, sound like they would be temporary. I have no reason to assume Linux admins are more expensive than Windows admins. And once people are used to Linux, it's not harder than Windows. Many people are only used to Windows because that's what they use at work...

I agree a lot of them are temporary but so are the initial costs of switching. However the TCO for a Linux based system (that's client based not server based) is in general higher than a corresponding Windows system although the RTI can also be higher making them more attractive for that reason. I was mentioning it as it is often missed out and one of the main reasons companies switch back to Windows based solutions.

I also agree Linux is not harder than Windows (easier a lot of the time) but it is what the majority of people are used to wherever they get that experience from (previous job, home use, etc).

All I am pointing out is one of the main reasons that companies have for switching back and something that is often missed out in discussions.

Linux would save businesses money as unlike Windows you do not have to retrain the user every time a new version appears. Sure my os updates constantly but the continuity is there to move up to the next version easily.

I have heard it said numerous times that "the computers we have at work have taught computer skills to millions" (I made that up). The military has had computers a long time now and that too has been many peoples introduction to them. It was mine. Now of course the smart phone is in most peoples hands at an early age. Personally, I have no android devises which I use. I dropped the phone (ha, ha) early on for numerous reasons one being that it is far better to shop on my full sized os.

My vote is for a home theater style computer with Linux of course.

Ozo wrote:Linux would save businesses money as unlike Windows you do not have to retrain the user every time a new version appears. Sure my os updates constantly but the continuity is there to move up to the next version easily.

A fair point to some degree but I don't think as big an issue as it would appear. I don't know any of the clients my company deals with that has had to do any specific retraining of note for a Windows version change. Ignoring Windows 8 a bit (as that was a disaster) even Windows 10 was an attempt to move towards something users were already familiar e.g. a more touch friendly style (I'm not claiming it was successful and we can argue about how well it handles in some other post). I would also argue that my Mac handles the continuous updates fine as well, no need for any retraining just continual improvements (in theory). I think this is also the model that Microsoft wants to move towards with Windows (whether they make it or not is up for debate).

Ozo wrote:I have heard it said numerous times that "the computers we have at work have taught computer skills to millions" (I made that up). The military has had computers a long time now and that too has been many peoples introduction to them. It was mine. Now of course the smart phone is in most peoples hands at an early age. Personally, I have no android devises which I use. I dropped the phone (ha, ha) early on for numerous reasons one being that it is far better to shop on my full sized os.

I agree (not that I have heard that a million times particularly as you made it up) our exposure at work has traditionally had a big hand in how we are taught the computer skills we have but that's changing now as children are more and more exposed to IT long before work. In away that's the one of the points I was trying to make that the growth of the smartphone and tablet have largely replaced a lot of the functionality a laptop (and to some extent a desktop) have traditionally occupied.

Ozo wrote:My vote is for a home theater style computer with Linux of course.

Excellent my vote is for a Macbook Pro backed up by my iPad and iPhone but that's because of with the amount of iOS development I do it makes sense. Otherwise I too might go the Linux route (I do run it for some occasions) although I also have Windows VMs and a Windows PC for work development. I'm all for people finding what works for them and not ruling out any of the options.

And now off to bed for me as I have to be up at 5:30.