windows 7 EOL opportunity for linux?

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oldgranola
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windows 7 EOL opportunity for linux?

Post by oldgranola » Thu Oct 25, 2018 6:40 pm

An article in Ars about EOL tor win7 prompted me to wonder if its an opportunity to push linux.

https://arstechnica.com/gadgets/2018/10 ... ife-looms/

I like win7, hated win8, ok with win10 but with big caveats. Corporate can afford ms move, Im in poor academic research, no way. Read that ms is less about the os anyway now. Since we can get open source for so much, office 360 is available, so much of science computing was unix...time to push linux right?
comadore, pcDOS, hpux, solaris, vms-vax ....blah blah blah..
Yet I'm still a fn nooob

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Re: windows 7 EOL opportunity for linux?

Post by old_noob » Thu Dec 06, 2018 10:44 pm

I've thought about this often over the last 2 years or so. It is definitely a big opportunity but I'm afraid Chrome OS will be the primary beneficiary. Chrome has been developing into a full fledged desktop OS: big hard drives on new high end Chromebooks, integration of Linux apps, etc. The biggie though is that most (~2/3) American k-12 students are now using Chromebooks at school. They will expect to continue in college and after graduation in the workplace. Chromebooks that can run Steam for Linux will capture many gamers who might otherwise stick with Windows at home, due to a Chromebook's bang for the buck. With even stodgy government agencies moving to cloud apps, the move to Chrome will happen there as soon as someone notices the greatly reduced cost relative to MS contracts. Even MS itself is stepping back from Windows nowadays. IMO, this is not entirely bad; I'd much rather be running Chrome at work than Windows. Except for google's snooping (really no worse, maybe even not as bad as W10) Chrome OS is extremely secure and stable... and it can run android apps too, very handy. At this time it looks like the best candidate for a one size fits all OS (phone, desktop & tablet) So, I think Chrome will be the Windows killer.

This doesn't mean that Linux distros won't pick up market share; they will. Mainstream media like Forbes is beginning to catch on to the advantages of Linux. The end of W7, which I honestly like despite some shortcomings under the hood, will cause many people to reject MS. Linux will also pick up many former Mac users as Apple moves away from the real PC market in favor of phones and tablets. This is already beginning to happen. IMO, Linux will be the Mac OS killer.

I did my part this week, noticed a well crafted phishing email posing as our chairperson's account. Several members of our board were quite panicked about malware. I mentioned in passing that I was fairly unconcerned as I ran Linux on my laptop. The next morning 2 members told me that they did indeed have locked and corrupted files; one asked me about my setup :mrgreen: .

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Re: windows 7 EOL opportunity for linux?

Post by rambo919 » Fri Dec 07, 2018 7:22 am

You know, I don't think I've ever actually SEEN a Chromebook physically....

rene
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Re: windows 7 EOL opportunity for linux?

Post by rene » Fri Dec 07, 2018 10:52 am

Up to now Chromebooks are approximately 90% US only; haven't made any sort of inroads in the rest of the world. Yet, maybe, but certainly I wouldn't want one either...

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michael louwe
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Re: windows 7 EOL opportunity for linux?

Post by michael louwe » Fri Dec 07, 2018 11:39 am

oldgranola wrote:
Thu Oct 25, 2018 6:40 pm
An article in Ars about EOL tor win7 prompted me to wonder if its an opportunity to push linux.
Problem is, who will do the pushing.? You and me.? Desktop Linux is very fragmented = very weak muscles to do any effective pushing. In comparison, Google Inc pushed Android strongly in the mobile OS market during the early 2010s. Google even imposed her Anti-Fragmentation Policy on the Android OEMs.

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Re: windows 7 EOL opportunity for linux?

Post by Hoser Rob » Sun Dec 09, 2018 11:50 am

michael louwe wrote:
Fri Dec 07, 2018 11:39 am
oldgranola wrote:
Thu Oct 25, 2018 6:40 pm
An article in Ars about EOL tor win7 prompted me to wonder if its an opportunity to push linux.
Problem is, who will do the pushing.? You and me.? Desktop Linux is very fragmented = very weak muscles to do any effective pushing. In comparison, Google Inc pushed Android strongly in the mobile OS market during the early 2010s. Google even imposed her Anti-Fragmentation Policy on the Android OEMs.
I agree, a Chrome desktop OS would wipe the floor with Linux. They'll have actual working hardware support. And there just aren't enough privacy nuts out there for that to matter.

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Re: windows 7 EOL opportunity for linux?

Post by Portreve » Sun Dec 09, 2018 12:28 pm

The primary limiting factor here for migration of the masses towards GNU+Linux is one of intellectual laziness. I would say "ignorance" but ignorance is actually an adjective, not a verb, and in any event is eminently curable. However, people have to actively want to cure it. That means bothering to take personal responsibility, and frankly I don't see that happening.

But yes, in principle, I agree that the Win7 EOL thing should be a migration opportunity for GNU+Linux.
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Re: windows 7 EOL opportunity for linux?

Post by redlined » Sun Dec 09, 2018 1:33 pm

win7 EOL sounds like a great opportunity for Linux to gain users and certainly to polished desktops like Mint, however.... a recent thread I participated in showed one area of concern that must be improved and that is seen when trying to do the simple thing of "verify" your ISO.

All the little tutorials need to address the windows ship jumpers asap- wherever there are line by line instructions on what to paste into terminal and what results are expected in doing so must make it also silly simple for windows users as well- who may want to do simple things like verify the integrity of the ISO using windows native programs or apps, not to mention burning the ISO and installing to UEFI, dualboots for transition anxiety, etc...

Every little thing different or seemingly difficult will matter greatly to many as comfort zones get perception expansions migrating from windows to linux and those things that stop the show at the starting gate, like verify ISO will be a frustration many may opt not to deal with (and, gasp, apple gets another branch to stick in it's tree- or win10 {{shudder}}
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Re: windows 7 EOL opportunity for linux?

Post by rene » Sun Dec 09, 2018 2:28 pm

redlined wrote:
Sun Dec 09, 2018 1:33 pm
win7 EOL sounds like a great opportunity for Linux to gain users
And would you find it to be a bigger or smaller opportunity than Windows XP EOL was?

That is, do you expect 3 or 1 new user(s)?

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Re: windows 7 EOL opportunity for linux?

Post by administrollaattori » Sun Dec 09, 2018 3:03 pm

No, because most of Windows 7 users will buy a cheap laptop, which has Windows 10, and then they use that laptop about one year (the maximum time when 32 GB hard drive is full and Windows is unusable), and then they will buy a new cheap laptop, which has Windows 10, .... and so on. :lol:

Let Windows 7 users be in peace. :wink:

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Re: windows 7 EOL opportunity for linux?

Post by redlined » Sun Dec 09, 2018 3:04 pm

rene wrote:
Sun Dec 09, 2018 2:28 pm
redlined wrote:
Sun Dec 09, 2018 1:33 pm
win7 EOL sounds like a great opportunity for Linux to gain users
And would you find it to be bigger or smaller opportunity than Windows XP EOL was?

That is, do you expect 3 or 1 new user(s)?
lol, exactly! although the 'landscape' has changed significantly since winXP was finally fading away and official EOL everywhere. I believe the general public is waking up to greater privacy appreciations and concerns that have come to the forefront with EU data handling laws, daily (seeming) mega-data breaches, the internet of everything connected everywhere, or as simple as loss of 'trust' in win10 as being such a headache over telemetry that had to be adjusted to meet new EU rules (for EU residents only! :evil: ).

Also the "spit and polish" done in Linux, especially Mint, but also in general adding at least an appearance of being more user friendly at first glance and initial use (except Arch linux;D)) since the last significant EOL rose up. I suspect most windows users have long since abandoned win7 for 10 just to keep up with the 'latest' thing going. I further imagine at least 3 of those have reconsidered their diehard reliance on windows and consider other OS- and that's the guy on the fence considering linux, they are the one(s) who need to be given the same respect for line by line terminal (cmd) commands to use while still in windows and trying to verify the ISO to install linux from.

Sometimes simple is not enough, if it's also not (very) easy... and if 'marketshare' gains are a desire by TPTB then some accommodations may go a long way towards providing that "easy" migration, net gain: more users.

there is also the "We have (better!) cookies" campaign angle to work :mrgreen:
Moem kōan 42: Should tool manufacturers be required to fix their products so that you cannot use their saws to cut the tree branch that you're sitting on?

(The answer to the ultimate question of life, the universe and everything is... 42!!;)

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Re: windows 7 EOL opportunity for linux?

Post by rene » Sun Dec 09, 2018 3:09 pm

Yeah, sorry for the cynicism, but I've been here for almost 20 years now; the number of "opportunities" I've seen come and go inspires little trust in Linux' desktop-breakthrough, ever.

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Re: windows 7 EOL opportunity for linux?

Post by Moem » Sun Dec 09, 2018 3:36 pm

oldgranola wrote:
Thu Oct 25, 2018 6:40 pm
time to push linux right?
Sure, go ahead and push! Or rather: share, explain and demonstrate to those with an interest.
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Re: windows 7 EOL opportunity for linux?

Post by rene » Sun Dec 09, 2018 3:44 pm

Moem wrote:
Sun Dec 09, 2018 3:36 pm
Sure, go ahead and push! Or rather: share, explain and demonstrate to those with an interest.
Careful though lest you spend months providing intensive free tech support to those you initially convince only to be finally rewarded with the demand to restore the real system since "Access still works different!".

Yes. I will keep showering this thread with negativity until it dies. Or I die. Whichever comes first.

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Re: windows 7 EOL opportunity for linux?

Post by Inundated » Sun Dec 09, 2018 3:56 pm

It took me, a reasonably competent Windows end user, years before I felt comfortable with Linux as a replacement for the EOL-ed Windows XP.

XP EOL was in 2014, and I didn't get around to going with Linux (Mint 19) until Fall 2018. Instead, I just shut down the Windows XP Dell and decided to just use my Windows 7 (later 10) laptop.

I don't know what I would have done if I didn't have the laptop. I suspect I would have replaced it with a Windows 7 desktop at some point.

That all said, I think the improvement of Linux distros aiming at the Windows conversion market, like Mint, mean there'll be more Windows 7-EOL-to-Linux migrations than there were directly from XP. (And yes, I realize Mint is not directly marketed as a Windows replacement OS, but it is one that Windows users often turn to as a Linux distro.)
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Re: windows 7 EOL opportunity for linux?

Post by redlined » Sun Dec 09, 2018 4:20 pm

rene wrote:
Sun Dec 09, 2018 3:09 pm
Yeah, sorry for the cynicism, but I've been here for almost 20 years now; the number of "opportunities" I've seen come and go inspires little trust in Linux' desktop-breakthrough, ever.
yes, that did not escape notice and it is very valid point! Looking at an old dvd I burned, Knoppix 5.3.1 (dated 26MAR08, probably when I burned it) reminds me of the reluctance I had in leaving XP that I had tamed and tweaked to exact desired OS (well best compromise anyways;). I think I was most likely the last XP user, going until the drive itself died in late 2016, but I could not make the jump - even when I setup dual/multi- boot on computer since the early 2000s, ran live sessions for those I could find, etc.. it all was simply too great a transition, for me, 10 years ago.

I skipped win7 and 8 and went to win10, disgusted as a privacy and security aware user, but no move towards linux until win10 finally ticked me off enough this past winter to say screw this- what Linux is best? and at the top of most lists I found Mint was always in the top 3 if not #1 recommended when it came to "leaving windows, what linux do I want?" sort of questions.

So I had another honest look and damn! impressive!! Immediate install this past Spring (with one old desktop recently inheritted getting dualboot LM19 Mate and win7 which I still have a very limitted need for- so see how long this drive lasts :lol: ) But really due in no small part to the tons of things that have changed, in default setup alone... silly litttle things like the way the mouse pointer looked (and pointed! needs to be top angled to left not right, dang it!:D) all soothed my concerns about Linux as a daily driver and Mint has earned that rep for good reason. The next step is to simplify it to point of "easy" for those still using windows and on the fence wanting to jump...somewhere... in regards initial user experience all the little things count for and against.

in the end, I have no dogs in this fight and other than those who profit in any way I don't see it matters too much to win the desktop wars as long as we don't relive the MS monopoly (re: ChromeOS)... and I do consider it as administrollaattori mentioned above, to paraphrase- let the win7 users rest in peace/pieces. If any windows refugees do show up, as they do daily, I'll still be here learning my new OS and trying to be a helpful newb, gaining experience while enjoying the ride and community :mrgreen:
Moem kōan 42: Should tool manufacturers be required to fix their products so that you cannot use their saws to cut the tree branch that you're sitting on?

(The answer to the ultimate question of life, the universe and everything is... 42!!;)

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Re: windows 7 EOL opportunity for linux?

Post by Portreve » Sun Dec 09, 2018 4:29 pm

redlined wrote:
Sun Dec 09, 2018 3:04 pm
lol, exactly! although the 'landscape' has changed significantly since winXP was finally fading away and official EOL everywhere. I believe the general public is waking up to greater privacy appreciations and concerns that have come to the forefront with EU data handling laws, daily (seeming) mega-data breaches, the internet of everything connected everywhere, or as simple as loss of 'trust' in win10 as being such a headache over telemetry that had to be adjusted to meet new EU rules (for EU residents only! :evil: ).
The GNU+Linux community, overall, is not an organization with a business case to market their wares in order to gain customers. I'm not offering this as a "bad thing" but I want to point it out because it makes a difference. Moreover, the mentality level of the average computer user is incompatible with what is as much an intellectual act as anything else.

Simply said: it does not matter how bad things are if the average perception is "I don't care" and/or "That's just how things are".
Peoples of the universe, please attend carefully: the message which follows is vital to the future of you all.

Presently rocking Linux Mint 19 Cinnamon.

Remember to mark your fixed problem [SOLVED].

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Re: windows 7 EOL opportunity for linux?

Post by michael louwe » Sun Dec 09, 2018 6:06 pm

rene wrote:
Sun Dec 09, 2018 2:28 pm
redlined wrote:
Sun Dec 09, 2018 1:33 pm
win7 EOL sounds like a great opportunity for Linux to gain users
And would you find it to be a bigger or smaller opportunity than Windows XP EOL was?

That is, do you expect 3 or 1 new user(s)?
According to netmarketshare, since Aug 2016(end of the free Win 10 upgrade offer) until Nov 2018, Windows world marketshare has dropped about 4%(= from about 91% to 87%) = about 80 million desktop OS users(out of about 2 billion) have left Windows for MacOS or Linux or ChromeOS. The rejection of Win 10 is a big factor contributing to this significant drop which may further accelerate after Jan 2020, the Win 7 EOL date.The drop may accelerate even more if IBM/Red Hat/Fedora has an LTS version or if Google/Amazon acquires Canonical/Ubuntu.
Last edited by michael louwe on Sun Dec 09, 2018 6:20 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: windows 7 EOL opportunity for linux?

Post by michael louwe » Sun Dec 09, 2018 6:17 pm

Portreve wrote:
Sun Dec 09, 2018 4:29 pm
The GNU+Linux community, overall, is not an organization with a business case to market their wares in order to gain customers.
Well, commercial-based Google, Red Hat, IBM, Codeweavers, Intel, AMD, Facebook, Samsung, etc are big contributors to the GNU+Linux community. So, it is in their interest to see desktop Linux gain customers.
....... But there may be a secret US-led conspiracy to keep M$-Windows dominant, especially in the enterprise and government sectors, eg to further US National Security interests - does Win 10 has backdoors as a spyware for the NSA.?

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Re: windows 7 EOL opportunity for linux?

Post by rene » Sun Dec 09, 2018 6:22 pm

michael louwe wrote:
Sun Dec 09, 2018 6:06 pm
The rejection of Win 10 is a big factor contributing to this significant drop which may accelerate after Jan 2020, the Win 7 EOL date.
The narrative is always the same. A new version of Windows is denounced until one or two "service packs" or, now, "feature updates" later, when general consensus settles on all problems being fixed and, in fact, the new version being the best thing since sliced bread. Of course nothing essential has changed during that time; it's just that change-resistant Windows users have had enough time to adapt.

Although I will name names nor call for the person to be spat on much, we currently even have someone here on the forum proclaiming Windows 10 to be the best Microsoft OS ever!!11!!!1. That is, good luck wanting or expecting things to be different this time 'round...

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