Corona virus (COVID-19)

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absque fenestris
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Re: Corona virus (COVID-19)

Post by absque fenestris »

I like the gentle, reserved humor of French-speaking bandes dessinées.

Ptiluc is one of my favorites: https://www.lambiek.net/artists/p/ptiluc.htm
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Re: Corona virus (COVID-19)

Post by Portreve »

absque fenestris wrote:
Sun Mar 01, 2020 1:23 am
I like the gentle, reserved humor of French-speaking bandes dessinées.

Ptiluc is one of my favorites: https://www.lambiek.net/artists/p/ptiluc.htm
I wonder if he's any relation to our own Clem...
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absque fenestris
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Re: Corona virus (COVID-19)

Post by absque fenestris »

Lefèbvre means the same in meaning and commonness as Smith...
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Re: Corona virus (COVID-19)

Post by ZakGordon »

Maybe a handy information link that everyone will be able to access (no paywall etc):

https://www.theguardian.com/world/coronavirus-outbreak

It has various articles and Q&A type articles about Covid-19. Keep in mind there is still not a huge amount of sure knowledge about the virus just yet, but sources like the link above will update with the newest info as it comes out. Information is power in these kind of situations, and more importantly 'good' information (over fake-news etc) can be difficult to find.

My brother is a good source to judge the spread of fake-news, as of yesterday (when we had a chat on the phone) he informed me covid-19 was produced by the Chinese to kill of their older population as they have concerns about having to look after them, and it was more transmissible than planned and 'escaped' their containment (He also voted for Brexit, and you find these 'channels of thought' often run side by side!).

So that is a perfect example of the Russian effort to spread fake-news, they will sound plausible to some, but fail to stand up to scientific scrutiny or run counter to what the leading experts in the field of micro-biology will be telling us. As of now the leading scientific understanding is that bat droppings contaminated some food source for pangolins which provided the species cross-over (and mutation) that paved the way for the animal-human vector. Bats are a common host for conovirus:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe_ac ... onavirus_2

If you have an issue with wikipedia (like my brother does) you will find all the links it uses as independent sources of information, often directly from the scientific studies involved.

Edit: and just to put much of the information i've been posting into perspective, here is a dialogue with one of the worlds foremost experts on this stuff:

'Epidemics expert Jonathan Quick:'

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... ra-spinney

Stay safe.
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Pjotr
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Re: Corona virus (COVID-19)

Post by Pjotr »

ZakGordon wrote:
Sun Mar 01, 2020 6:45 am
Stay safe.
.... at least for long enough until symptom alleviators like chloroquine have been tested properly and have been made widely available. :(

I'm not satisfied with the "soft" measures that the Dutch government is taking. Not reassuring, when you compare that with the much more rigorous approach by the Germans and Belgians.

With a 1 in 50 mortality rate, it's 20 times more lethal than seasonal flu. So statistically, in a pandemic 340.000 Dutch people could die from COVID-19 in the coming months. You might expect the Dutch authorities to be a tad more rigorous. :twisted:
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Re: Corona virus (COVID-19)

Post by kukamuumuka »

Pjotr wrote:
Sun Mar 01, 2020 7:37 am
With a 1 in 50 mortality rate, it's 20 times more lethal than seasonal flu. So statistically, in a pandemic 340.000 Dutch people could die from COVID-19 in the coming months. You might expect the Dutch authorities to be a tad more rigorous. :twisted:
Actually the rate is now 3,4 % (2 979/86 992)x100. Rate increases because more people get the point to recover or perish.
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Re: Corona virus (COVID-19)

Post by old_noob »

We don't really know what the mortality rate is because many/most mild infections are likely unreported. We only see the absolute worst-case scenario from the media and medical community.

However we seem to have a worst case scenario happening right now - a nursing home in the US state of Washington, where practically all residents are medically compromised in some way.

Also, it appears that a significant number of infected individuals are symptom-free. What's that going to do to quarantine efforts?

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Re: Corona virus (COVID-19)

Post by Pjotr »

A cousin of my wife happens to be working on a vaccine for a major pharmaceutical producer. I spoke to her yesterday at a birthday party (the cousin, not my wife), and she said that all normal procedures are being sped up to the max.

Vaccine designs are already "in the animals", i.e. being tested on animals. She has three more weeks to improve on those designs, before she'll have to return to her previous work. Then it's up to the testing crews (tests on human volunteers etc.) and the production crews.

Despite all those efforts, she said it'll take over a year before a vaccine will become widely available.... She expressed the hope that a vaccine (either from her company or from another company) will come in time for at least part of the world population. A hope we all share.... But the chances are slim.

As said before: our main hope for the short term lies in symptom reducers, like chloroquine. One small producer of chloroquine is present in The Netherlands (Zeewolde): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavir ... #Antiviral
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Re: Corona virus (COVID-19)

Post by kukamuumuka »

EU has made a site for coronavirus information.
https://ec.europa.eu/info/live-work-tra ... esponse_en

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Re: Corona virus (COVID-19)

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Re: Corona virus (COVID-19)

Post by ZakGordon »

The numbers are really starting to ramp up outside of China currently (and they are still going strong inside China). A year away for a vaccine is what i've heard from other credible places too.

I'm not the best mathematician but looking at how fast (and this is just reported/confirmed cases) it is going, in a year what could the numbers look like? Not good. Governments need to be more pro-active at stopping the spread imho, no matter the short-term economic cost.
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Re: Corona virus (COVID-19)

Post by BenTrabetere »

ZakGordon wrote:
Mon Mar 02, 2020 4:27 pm
The numbers are really starting to ramp up outside of China currently (and they are still going strong inside China). A year away for a vaccine is what i've heard from other credible places too.

I'm not the best mathematician but looking at how fast (and this is just reported/confirmed cases) it is going, in a year what could the numbers look like? Not good. Governments need to be more pro-active at stopping the spread imho, no matter the short-term economic cost.
I am not an epidemiologist, but I do have experience in the animal health industry. Here is my best SWAG.

First, this is a best-cast, worst-case virus. The good news is the mortality rate is low - roughly 2%. The bad news is it is highly contagious, and it has not been determined if there are non-human reservoirs and vectors. (If memory serves, SARS and MERS, other diseases caused by a coronavirus, could be spread by bats and pigeons (for SARS) and camels (for MERS).) The really bad news is it appears it can be spread by asymptomatic carriers. A low mortality rate with a very high infection equals a lot of deaths. Think 1918 influenza, which had a similar mortality rate.

Second, I expect the infection rate will mimic another coronavirus, the common cold. If this occurs, the infection rate in the northern hemisphere to start to drop by the end of March and pretty much drop to zero by the end of April, followed by a slight increase towards the start of summer. Everyone will think the worst is over, get complacent, and then POW! it returns with a vengeance sometime around November.

Third, the southern hemisphere is where the action will be, especially if COVID-19 mimics the common cold. I can't speak for Europe and Asia, but an alarming number of USAians cannot grasp the fact that summer is winter (cold and flu season) for Antipodeans.

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Re: Corona virus (COVID-19)

Post by all41 »

BenTrabetere wrote:
Mon Mar 02, 2020 11:40 pm
informative--thanks
btw: what is meant swag--can't find reference
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Re: Corona virus (COVID-19)

Post by BenTrabetere »

all41 wrote:
Tue Mar 03, 2020 12:01 am
BenTrabetere wrote:
Mon Mar 02, 2020 11:40 pm
informative--thanks
btw: what is meant swag--can't find reference
Scientific Wild-Ass Guess

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Re: Corona virus (COVID-19)

Post by all41 »

:wink: works for me
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Re: Corona virus (COVID-19)

Post by lsemmens »

If the world has gotten so wound up over the Corona Virus death rate 3,000 odd for the enitre world, why is it so that they are not so worried about the MVA death rate?

Food for thought.
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Re: Corona virus (COVID-19)

Post by Pjotr »

lsemmens wrote:
Tue Mar 03, 2020 6:09 am
If the world has gotten so wound up over the Corona Virus death rate 3,000 odd for the enitre world,
Yet. Remember that the mortality rate of COVID-19 is probably two percent.... Imagine two percent of the entire world population dying from COVID-19 within a couple of months. That's what we're facing in the worst-case scenario.
Last edited by Pjotr on Tue Mar 03, 2020 6:19 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Corona virus (COVID-19)

Post by lsemmens »

Pjotr wrote:
Tue Mar 03, 2020 6:15 am
lsemmens wrote:
Tue Mar 03, 2020 6:09 am
If the world has gotten so wound up over the Corona Virus death rate 3,000 odd for the enitre world,
Yet. Remember that the mortality rate of COVID-19 is probably two percent.... Imagine two percent of the entire world population dying within a couple of months. That's what we're facing in the worst-case scenario.
2% of people who contract the virus (as you say - Worst Case), There are way more people "infected" with MVA every day, not everyone dies of MVA.
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Re: Corona virus (COVID-19)

Post by ZakGordon »

Well most people think they are in control when driving (and many are if you think about the proportion of accidents vs non accidents, i've driven for over 20 years and never had an accident etc). You can use your senses to mitigate traffic accidents (if you want to).

Virus are simply invisible and undetectable with no aspect of you having 'control' over them in the same way. So that is probably the big point on why people might freak out more over something like covid-19, rather than the thought of getting in the car to do a shopping run. So it's less about the actual death rates as the perceived lack of 'control' over the situation. Conovirus can hang around for upto 9 days on surfaces with a chance of infecting the next person, and you will have no idea it is happening.

Wash hands frequently, especially after coming in from being out and about.
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Re: Corona virus (COVID-19)

Post by BenTrabetere »

lsemmens wrote:
Tue Mar 03, 2020 6:09 am
...why is it so that they are not so worried about the MVA death rate?
I think people are worried about motor vehicle accidents, how to prevent them, and how to reduce the damage they cause. Safety features are added to automobiles each year, attempts are made to make roads safer, traffic laws are put in place to address preventable accidents.

For over two years I have been petitioning for a 3-way stop sign to be installed at the intersection next to my house - the speed limit for the street I live on is an overly generous 25mph, and yet the idiots using my street as a short-cut zip through at >45mph.

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